China's lithium battery wet diaphragm industry analysis

The growth rate of wet diaphragm is much faster than that of dry diaphragm

With the widespread application and popularization of digital electronic products and new energy power products, the lithium-ion battery industry has developed an industrial chain system with high degree of specialization and clear division of labor. The global lithium-ion battery market has achieved rapid growth, lithium. The rapid expansion of the ion battery industry has driven the rapid growth of the entire diaphragm industry. According to the starting point study (SPIR) statistics, global lithium-ion battery separator production increased from 500 million square meters in 2010 to 1.42 billion square meters in 2015, an increase of nearly three times. It is expected that global lithium-ion battery separator production will reach 17.19 in 2016. Billion meters.

China's lithium battery separator industry is in the stage of rapid development. The localization rate of lithium battery separators is increasing, but most of the high-end wet diaphragms are still imported, mainly used in the high-end digital market and power battery market. On lithium battery separator market point of view, the growth rate far exceeds the dry wet membrane separator, the main power source is a battery and high-end digital art. In 2016, the output of China's lithium battery separator manufacturers was 929 million square meters, an increase of 33.03% year-on-year. Among them, wet diaphragm manufacturers further increased their volume. Most wet expansion companies and wet separators began to gradually increase their volume. China Lithium Battery in 2016 The production of wet diaphragms reached 390 million square meters, accounting for 42%, surpassing the dry single-drawing diaphragm and becoming the main supply type in the diaphragm market. With the rapid development of the power lithium battery market, it is estimated that by 2018, China's wet diaphragm production will reach 800 million square meters, accounting for more than half of the market share.

Production and forecast of various lithium battery separators in China from 2014 to 2020 (unit: 100 million square meters)

中国锂电池湿法隔膜行业分析

Wet diaphragm becomes the mainstream route for the next 5 years

In 2016, the world's top four lithium-ion diaphragm companies, Asahi Kasei, Japan Toray, US Celgard and South Korea SKI, accounted for 20.8%, 15.1%, 10.8% and 9.6% of the global market share respectively. The top four diaphragm companies accounted for nearly 50%. Share, three of the top four companies are based on the wet diaphragm technology route, the only dry diaphragm company in the United States CELGARD, due to poor management was acquired by Asahi Kasei, the wet diaphragm technology route represents the mainstream of the world.

The growth of the diaphragm market is mainly driven by the power market, high-end digital market, import substitution and export. In the future, with the large-scale use of wet diaphragms for power batteries, the diaphragm pattern of China's lithium batteries will undergo major changes. In the future, the growth rate and potential of wet membrane companies such as Suzhou Jieli, Hunan Zhongli, and Shanghai Enjie will be higher than the dry method.

Domestic wet diaphragm average gross profit margin exceeds 50%

Affected by the rapid growth of downstream applications, the lithium battery wet diaphragm company's revenue in 2015 achieved good market performance, with a year-on-year increase of 50%. From the perspective of revenues of various companies in the first half of 2016, the growth and gross profit margin of wet-membrane listed companies are at a relatively high level.

2014--2016 China's lithium battery separator wet relevant listed company's revenue and growth indices (Unit: million,%)

中国锂电池湿法隔膜行业分析

to sum up

Due to the explosive development of the new energy vehicle market, and the demand for ternary materials has driven the demand for wet diaphragms to increase rapidly, domestic manufacturers have expanded the capacity of wet diaphragms, but due to the high barriers to production technology and the long construction period of production lines The production time and actual production capacity are still uncertain, and the high-end wet diaphragm market will still be in short supply.

In order to cope with the rapid growth of power lithium batteries , domestic mainstream diaphragm companies have increased investment in capacity of wet diaphragms. The next three to five years will be the best investment opportunities for wet diaphragms, as well as the main investment in wet diaphragm investment and capacity. window period. In 2016, in response to the rapid growth of power lithium batteries, the domestic and international lithium battery wet diaphragm industry has increased production capacity investment. Most enterprises have increased their efforts to achieve early production capacity. The more prominent enterprises include Hunan Lithium and Suzhou Jieli. The year-end production capacity reached 160 million square meters and 120 million square meters respectively, but most of its production capacity will be put into production in the second half of the year, which is expected to be converted into effective capacity in the first half of 2017.

Due to the high barriers in production technology, the long construction period of the production line and the uncertainty of the production time and actual production capacity, it is expected that the domestic high-end wet diaphragm will continue to be in short supply in 2016-2018, and has been in a net import state. The profitability of the diaphragm manufacturer will continue to operate at a high level. Therefore, in 2018 and 2019, domestic wet-membrane production enterprises will compete for each other in the market. In 2020, the domestic wet-membrane industry will form a relatively stable market structure. The advance layout of enterprises will take the lead in occupying the market.

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