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“Why does the oil price rise against the trend? There is a considerable price bubble here.†Chen Fengying, director of the Institute of World Economy at the China Institute of Modern Relations, directly put forward her bubble theory, “because the US dollar is irresponsibly super-degraded, causing The rise in international oil prices and food prices has a lot of room for speculation.†She also predicted that 2010 will be an inflection point for crude oil prices, because there will be a cyclical upward turn in the US dollar.
According to Shanwei Guo, director of the Institute of Market Research of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Institute of Economics and Technology, the cost of oil has doubled and the downstream has increased by 75% from 2005 to the present. The main reason is that oil demand has been rising and the dollar has accelerated over the years. The devaluation, at the same time, increased demand for oil service, equipment, and personnel eventually led to an increase in the cost of oil supply. For the prediction of the future oil price trend, he believes: “An average annual price of 125 US dollars will have a serious impact on the world economy. Now that it has reached this critical point, there is limited room for further increases in oil prices!â€
Foreign analysts believe that demand will continue to support high oil prices. Steve Terry, head of Victoria's Petroleum Research Department, judged oil prices “with seemingly endless demands for oilâ€. He believes that because everyone wants to buy a car and drive a car, the potential for increased car demand is huge. “So the price of oil is high, but the potential for demand is huge. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that oil prices will remain high!â€
Domestic and Foreign Experts Criticize "The Oil Price Bubble Theory"
Where will the oil price go? Is there a "bubble" in oil prices? These are important topics that domestic and foreign experts are paying attention to at the Fifth Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum.