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The September chemical list showed that the chemical product with the largest drop in the previous month was sulphur, which plunged from 4,400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,200 yuan/ton, with a drop of up to 50% and o-xylene with a decrease of 18.81%. Only maleic anhydride and epichlorohydrin prices rose throughout the list, but the increase was only 1.1% and 4%. In the energy-related products list, DME dropped by as much as 20.3% last month, followed by two major fuel oils – Singapore fuel oil 180cst and Singapore fuel oil 380cst, which fell by 16.5% and 16.1% respectively. Plastic products list prices fell across the board, PP drawing level, PVC calcium carbide method type 5 and ABS dropped the top three.
In general, petrochemicals took a relatively neat course last month, with an average drop of nearly 10%. If we trace back to the entire market trend since July, the price of petrochemical chemical products has dropped by as much as 30% to 40%. This not only squeezes most of the bubbles accumulated in the first half of the year, but has even returned to 2006, 2007. The level of the year.
“From July to October, the price of the product has fallen almost every month, and a very clear drop has been formed. More seriously, this channel shows a black hole effect – the decline has gradually increased.†Chemical Industry Network Information Center Executive Editor Liu Xintian said.
He believes that in such a situation, it is imperative to control the market, especially the control of upstream products, otherwise it is likely to become a disaster. "After all, crude oil is a barometer for the petrochemical market. The future trend of the petrochemical market will still depend on crude oil."
"But the problem is that this is an unfair game again." In Liu Xintian's view, the above price changes in petrochemical chemicals are mainly attributed to changes in the economic environment and market conditions. From nearly US$150 to US$80, the repeated large fluctuations in crude oil made downstream products inconsequential, and the drastic changes in costs and downturns in downstream markets also made product positioning difficult. With regard to changes in market prices, manufacturers can only accept it with reluctance, and the initiative of positioning is no longer in the hands of manufacturers, nor is it in the hands of traders.
It is worth noting that the steel industry has also seen an inflection point since July, and coke and coking companies have responded. As the output of steel mills reduced, the demand for coke decreased. Nearly a third of the coking enterprises in the country stopped or stopped operations from July to September, which indirectly led to a drop in coal prices, which in turn led to a drop in coal chemical downstream products.
“In the face of the global economic changes, cross-industry influence will become more prominent. Not only will steel have an impact on the chemical industry, even the dairy industry triggered by the melamine incident will affect the chemical industry. We expect that other industries The bad news may be released one after another, which will intensify the crackdown on the petrochemical industry." Liu Xintian said finally.
Domestic petrochemical industry has entered the down channel
On October 16th, the trend of “the early appearance of a depressed chemical market and the price entering the downtrend channel†reported last month was confirmed by the market. Yesterday's data showed that the domestic petrochemical industry continued to fall in the past four months and a clear downward path has been formed. Particularly serious is the cross-industry impact on the petrochemical industry.