Forecast Analysis of Profit Growth of China's Machinery Industry in 2012

From July 11th to 12th, the mechanical industry focused on high-end and promote the transformation and upgrading work exchange meeting was held in Shenyang. Cai Weici, executive vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, said in his speech that the annual output and export of the machinery industry is still expected to achieve more than 10% growth, but the profit growth will be less than 10%.

We should not be overly concerned with the short-term growth rate decline and fluctuations, but we must pay more attention to the long-term structural adjustment goals. The machinery industry was excessively pursuing speed and scale growth in previous years. This mode of development is not sustainable and must be changed. In order to achieve this change, we must bear the price of the short-term growth rate decline, and do not have to panic.

In the overall grim situation, there is still no lack of bright colors. Cai Weici pointed out that there are four highlights worth the attention of the whole industry.

First of all, the more serious the decline in the industry's exports, the faster the growth. For example, from January to May, the output value of construction machinery increased by only 4.71% year-on-year, but the export growth was as high as 31.80%; the output value of the automobile industry increased by only 12.32% year-on-year, but the export growth reached 19.92%; the output value of heavy mining machinery increased only 13.36% year-on-year. However, exports have increased by 33.39%.

Secondly, private enterprises and small businesses have demonstrated stronger development vitality. From January to May, the output value of private enterprises in the machinery industry was 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.59% year-on-year. The growth rate was 5.65 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of 11.94% in the entire industry, and the proportion in the entire industry rose to 54.4%. From January to May, the total industrial output value of small-scale enterprises in the machinery industry increased by 20.11% year-on-year, far higher than the growth rate of large enterprises (6.51%) and medium-sized enterprises (8.40%) in the same period.

Third, the intensity of marching into high-end equipment has not diminished. 3,000-ton crawler cranes, 520-horsepower bulldozers, 46-ton forklifts, 500-ton or more all-terrain cranes, 75-cubic-meter mining excavators... A group of world-class top-of-the-line equipments have come out; Zhejiang University’s Zhonghuan Controlled two in the Middle East between April and May. The control system of large-scale petrochemical projects amounts to 400 million yuan and 300 million yuan respectively; Jiangsu steel ball has been absorbed by SKF as a strategic supplier of supporting steel balls due to its good quality; hydraulic components supporting excavators have been imported for a long time. , Has made breakthroughs in Zhongchuan hydraulic, constant hydraulic, hydraulic power source and other enterprises, began a small number of trials. There are many such cases, indicating that the pace of the "high-end, high-tech basis" of the machinery industry is accelerating.

Finally, some companies actively explored surplus capacity and turned to develop new areas. Cai Weici said that, for example, the motorcycle enterprises in the Chongqing area have been actively developing and converting micro-agricultural work machines in response to the difficulties of their overcapacity and the difficulty of displaying large-scale agricultural machinery in the hilly areas, which not only meets the needs of local agricultural development, but also eases the original industry. The pain of vicious competition. China's camera and optical instrument companies adapt to the situation of product structure adjustments, and promptly switch to mobile phone lenses, which now account for 80% of the world's market; in the first four months of this year, 7.32 million, or 548 million US dollars, have been exported, an increase of 31.8%.

From these bright spots, we can see that the invisible hand of the market to the structural adjustment of the machinery industry is showing its power. Although these efforts may not have an immediate effect on steady growth this year in the short term, in the long run, deepening market-oriented reforms and stimulating internal dynamism in enterprises will certainly help the situation gradually improve. As long as China’s high-end equipment capabilities have truly gone up, China’s machinery industry will not only be able to “stabilize” its livelihood, but it will also be “progressive”. It is also hopeful that it will emerge from its current predicament and truly embark on a track of sustained and healthy development and a stronger and stronger one. Now.