Global electric vehicle and power battery development trends and demand forecast

On March 1-4, 2017, the 8th International Rechargeable Battery Exhibition was held at the Big Sight International Exhibition Center in Japan, and an expert seminar was held in the same period. At the seminar, a research institute published a market forecast analysis report for lithium-ion batteries, which mainly listed some predictions made by B3 companies. After reading this report, I found that some battery data is not completely accurate, but this It does not prevent its readability as a market trend forecast analysis report.

According to Takeshi Miyamoto, senior vice president of B3, global environmental protection policies and electric vehicle stimulus policies (eg, US ZEV regulations, European CO2 emissions regulations, China's NEV regulations, etc.) will continue to drive sales of electric vehicles and The main factor for the increase in demand for lithium-ion power batteries. Among them, the demand for consumer batteries and automotive power batteries will reach 100GWh in 2017, of which the demand for consumer batteries is about 50GWh, the demand for passenger cars is about 31GWh, and the demand for 19GWh is mainly from Chinese buses. Commercial vehicle (Figure 1). In 2016, the global sales of BEV/PHEV passenger cars was approximately 721,000, of which 146,000 were in the United States, 201,000 in Europe, 25,000 in Japan and 336,000 in China. Sales growth in the US and Europe was small, and China led a significant increase in the market.

Figure 1 Lithium-ion battery shipments and sales of BEV/PHEV in each region

In order to meet the requirements of environmental regulations in various countries, the number of electric vehicles in 2021 needs to reach 900 million, and in 2026, it needs to reach 16 million. The demand for conversion into batteries is about 180GWh in 2021 (about 4 additional A similar Tesla super battery plant with a capacity of 35 GWh) requires 450-500 GWh in 2026 (approximately 12-13 Tesla super battery plants are required) (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Global electric vehicle and power battery demand forecast

In the passenger vehicle field, according to the statistics of power battery shipments by B3, in 2016, Panasonic ranked first, BYD ranked second, and AESC ranked third. Although LG Chem failed to enter the top three in 2016, it is predicted that the ranking will increase significantly in 2017 (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Major passenger car battery supplier shipments

In order to further improve battery performance, the battery technology competition of global battery manufacturers will further intensify. For example, LG Chem Optimization has improved many battery design details so that the battery can meet the requirements of GM Volt and Bolt, including battery energy density, durability and cost. Figure 4 summarizes the development trend of energy density (Wh/L) of battery cells (including square hard shell battery Pr, soft pack battery Pouch, cylindrical battery 18650/21700). By 2020, the power cell Cell energy density will generally exceed 600Wh. /L.

Figure 4 Cell energy density trend

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