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People in the industry pointed out that the downstream market in Asia (especially China and India) has great potential, and the Middle East has sufficient raw materials and price advantages. For a period of time in the future, new capacity in Europe and the United States will be limited, and the new capacity of the global ethylene industry will be mainly concentrated in Asia.
Due to the rapid increase in production capacity, the global ethylene supply and demand pattern began to shift from supply shortages to oversupply, and the gross profit margin of the ethylene industry began to decline. The data released jointly by CMAI and the consulting company Purvin & Gertz in Singapore shows that in 2007, the cash gross profit of the global ethylene industry fell by 36.5% compared to 2006, to 10.8 cents/pound. CMAI expects that in the coming years, the profits of global ethylene producers will also decline. To this end, Sinopec related sources said that as more new projects will be put into operation in the next two or three years, the global ethylene production capacity has exceeded the growth rate of demand, the decline in the operating rate of the device will be inevitable.
In recent years, the Middle East countries have used their unique oil and gas resources to develop the petrochemical industry. Due to its unique advantages in terms of geographical location, shipping and infrastructure construction, ethylene in the Middle East countries has strong international competitiveness. Nowadays, the Middle East, represented by Saudi Arabia, has become the fastest growing region in the global ethylene industry. Experts in the meeting predict that in 2010, the ethylene production capacity in the Middle East will reach 24.58 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 19.8% from 2006 to 2010; the demand will be 20.91 million tons, and the average annual growth rate will be 16.9%, which is higher than the capacity growth rate. 2.9 percentage points lower. By then, the ethylene utilization rate in the Middle East will drop from 97.3% in 2006 to 86%. At the same time, the market potential in Asia represented by China and India is huge. The growth rate of ethylene production capacity is second only to the Middle East, and the average annual growth rate will reach 10.1% from 2006 to 2010. It is estimated that in 2010, Asian ethylene production capacity will reach 50.74 million tons, demand will reach 43.99 million tons, and the operating rate of equipment will be reduced from 99.6% in 2006 to 85%.
Global ethylene industry is no longer easy to make money
As a large number of new devices will be put into operation from 2009 to 2010, the global ethylene industry will experience a decline in the degree of ethylene plant operating rate will be reduced to 85% in 2010. This is the information that the reporter received from the 2008 China Petroleum and Chemical Society Annual Conference held on May 28.