Industry concentration is too low 2011 Chinese cars continue to differentiate

Whether or not Detroit is on the road to revival, the United States is no longer the world's first car market. At the beginning of December 2010, officials of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers forecast that the sales of Chinese automobiles this year will reach 17.6 million. This figure exceeds the peak level of car sales in the United States. As early as 2000, the sales volume of American cars had reached 17.3 million, and sales have been declining since then. The Chinese car will continue to grow.

However, China has become the world's largest auto market and has not fundamentally changed its structural problems. For a long time, the low concentration of China's auto industry has been criticized. In the past two years, this accumulative disadvantage did not change significantly with the rapid development of the Chinese auto market. According to a survey conducted by the Automotive Research Institute and Gasgoo.com, the share of the top ten vehicle manufacturers sold in the narrow passenger car market in January-November 2010 was only 59.8%, which was a drop of about three percentage points from the same period in 2009. However, the top three companies in the sales volume of Microscopic View have increased their market share by approximately 1% from the previous year’s 25.21% to 26.05%.

According to the development trend in the first 11 months of 2010, there will not be much change in the concentration of China's auto industry in 2011, unless the government-driven merger and reorganization can start again.

According to the unchanged pattern data, the top ten car companies ranked cumulatively in the narrow-sale passenger car market in January-November 2010 were Shanghai GM, Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen, Beijing Hyundai, Dongfeng Nissan, Chery Automobile, BYD Auto, and FAW Toyota. Geely Automobile and Changan Ford Mazda.

Compared with the sales rankings for the same period in 2009, the rankings of the top ten car companies sold during January-November 2010 have no significant fluctuations. The only change is that Guangzhou Automobile Honda, ranked in the ninth position last year, slipped out of the top ten, and Changan Ford Mazda. Instead, they are pushed into the camp.

In terms of monthly sales, Shanghai GM topped the top ten camps in January, April, May, September, October and November in the first 11 months of 2010. Shanghai Volkswagen ranked first in February, March, June, July and August. The competition between the two vehicle manufacturers has become the focus of the entire industry.

Not only that, but also in the single-month sales, there are also a number of car companies have appeared in the top ten camps in and out of the phenomenon. For example, BYD Auto once had a bleak history of falling in the top ten in September and Geely Automobile in June, August and September. Although Changan Ford Mazda ranked tenth in sales from 368,557 units in January-November, its position was mainly laid in August this year. The data show that in February, March and May of this year, In the four months of July, Changan Ford Mazda's single-month sales failed to reach the top ten.

In contrast, Guangzhou Automobile Honda, although its cumulative sales in January-November was squeezed out of the top ten camps, but in the monthly sales ranking, the company still has six months (February, March, June, July, 8 Month and September) are members of this camp.

In the top ten camps of narrow passenger cars, several ranking car companies still have large fluctuations in sales performance. The top three rankings, including Shanghai GM and North and South China Volkswagen, are relatively stable. This also shows the relative stability of the competitive landscape of the top ten companies to some extent.

From the year-on-year growth rate of sales, the three fastest-growing companies in the top ten car companies are the three highest-selling vehicle manufacturers. Among them, Shanghai GM's sales grew fastest, from the 625,500 units in the same period in 2009, an increase of 51.3% to 949,500 vehicles, and surpassed Shanghai Volkswagen in the same period in 2009. From January to November 2010, Shanghai Volkswagen sold 9,000,900 vehicles, an increase of 41.7% year-on-year. During the same period, FAW-Volkswagen sales were 808,500 units, an increase of 31.1%, which was lower than the average increase of 36.9% in the narrow passenger car market.

Chery Automobiles, which ranks fourth, completed sales of 551,500 units with a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and its cumulative sales rank sixth. The growth of Nissan Motor Co., which is in close touch with Chery Automobile, increased 29.0% year-on-year to 605,800 units in January-November. The increase was in line with sales, which were all ranked fifth.

In the first 11 months of the differentiation trend, the lowest growth rate was BYD, with an increase of 20.7%. FAW Toyota's growth rate was slightly higher than BYD's at 21.0%. However, sales volume of BYD (narrow passenger cars) is higher than that of FAW Toyota. Sales of GAC Honda, which fell from the top ten, only increased by 6.2% in January-November this year.

In the independent brand camp, the three companies with the highest sales volume are Chery, BYD and Geely. From January to November, their accumulated sales volume was 1,388,800 units, which was only 26.0% higher than the same period of 2009, and the growth rate was lower than the average of the narrow passenger vehicle industry. The proportion in the narrow passenger car market was also 23.79% from the same period of last year. Declined by 1% to 22.70%.

As far as Chinese domestic vehicle manufacturers are concerned, BYD Auto is the most volatile. Compared with 2009, BYD's pace of growth has been severely slowed down, and its main model has been aging and it has failed to launch its best-selling new model. At present, BYD’s main sales force is still the F3 sedan series that was launched in 2006. Inspired by stimulus policies, the market segment in which it operates has become the most fiercely competitive market, with not only a large number of independent brands competing but also new joint venture brand vehicles. Although the F3 sedan has increased its promotional efforts in various regions, sales from January to November still fell 14.7% year-on-year to 189,700. The company’s second- and third-highest selling models were F0 and F6, which were listed in September and March 2008 respectively.

Since 2009, BYD has introduced several new models including the G3, the sports car S8, the high-end sedan L3, the MPV model M6, and the electric cars F3 DM and E6. Although this reflects BYD's efforts to expand into high-end cars and MPV markets and its leading position in the field of electric vehicles, none of these models can contribute BYD's sales to the terminal market. The M6 ​​and L3, which had relatively better sales performance, had sales of only 1,522 units and 907 units from January to November this year.

Judging from the appearance, the “backdoor” that began in April this year is the main factor that caused BYD to suffer frequent waterloo in the market. In essence, under the implementation of the exceptionally smooth expansion strategy, many of the detailed feedbacks from the market that BYD ignores are the biggest internal causes of its imprisonment. For a privately-owned vehicle company that is pursuing a market share expansion and is growing, the "puffiness" caused by the rapid expansion is likely to bring about a devastating crisis for the company.

In late 2009 and early 2010, most vehicle manufacturers raised their sales targets. However, according to sales in the past 11 months, their completion rate is not high.

In the top ten camps for sales, Shanghai GM, Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen and Dongfeng Nissan's four vehicle manufacturers have completed their annual sales targets. Among them, Shanghai GM exceeded its annual target of 99,500 vehicles. Shanghai Volkswas sales in January-November exceeded its annual target of 78,900 vehicles. FAW-Volkswagen and Dongfeng Nissan also exceeded their annual targets of 48,500 vehicles and 5,771 vehicles respectively.

Among the other six car companies, there are still a number of companies that have a large gap from the annual sales target. For example, BYD’s sales from January to November still had a gap of 331,500 units from its annual target, while Chery’s sales were 148,500. Changan Ford Mazda has more than 6,000 vehicles from its annual sales target. Geely and Beijing Hyundai’s sales in December will need to reach more than 30,000 vehicles to complete the full-year target. FAW Toyota also needs to sell nearly 50,000 vehicles in December to complete its annual target.

The main reasons for the low sales growth of Guangqi Honda, which was excluded from the top ten rankings, were due to the lack of production capacity, parts factory strikes, recalls, and Honda’s conservative strategy in China.

The company’s main models, the Accord and New Fit, both saw year-on-year declines in sales from January to November this year. Although it released the 2010 Accord in November 2009, sales in the first 11 months fell by 1.2% to 156,300 units due to multiple factors such as insufficient production capacity, mid-year suspension of production by parts factories, suspension of production of finished vehicles, and competition in the market. . The new Fit sales fell 33.4% to 29.8 million vehicles during the same period.

In 2011, in the absence of external forces, the Chinese auto market will continue this differentiation trend.