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On December 30, 2009, at the NDRC's meeting to curb overcapacity in certain industries, the spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology first proposed “warning of overheating tendencies in modern coal chemical industryâ€. The demonstration project should not be over-populated, and reiterated that it will not approve new pilots for three years.
The demonstration-based modern coal chemical industry was once the biggest “opportunity†for the coal chemical industry, but will policy support for “abruptly end†stop pouring water into this industry? Where are the opportunities for modern coal chemical industry in the future? Analysts pointed out that oil prices and technology are the breakthrough points for promoting policy support.
Policy "tightening"
The "turn" of policy trends from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is sudden but not unexpected. After modern coal chemical industry became the focus of policy support for the coal chemical industry, relevant projects across the country have mushroomed overnight.
In the demonstration project that has already obtained the “Roadâ€, only a one-million-ton project of Shenhua was approved for coal-to-liquids, and the total project-based coal-to-oil ratio reported by the localities exceeded 40 million tons; only three coal-based natural gas projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission One is Datang International Inner Mongolia Keshiketengqi Project, Inner Mongolia Huieng Project and Liaoning Fuxin Datang Project, with a production capacity of nearly 10 billion cubic meters per year, and the reported size of each region reaches 25 billion cubic meters; Only 3 of the coal-to-olefins projects are expected. The estimated production capacity is 1.7 million tons, and the total production capacity of coal-to-olefins reported from various regions is as high as 20 million tons.
According to statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, the total investment of modern coal chemical projects reported by various localities has been budgeted according to the investment in demonstration projects and has exceeded 1 trillion yuan. The relevant officials of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly pointed out at the end of December 2009 that the development trend of the industrialization of modern coal chemical industry was overheated, and that the demonstration project should not be over-populated. In principle, new pilots will not be arranged in the next three years.
In addition to the enthusiasm of investment funds around the country, Li Ningning, deputy director of the Industry Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out recently that modern coal chemical projects based on demonstration projects have high one-time investment, complex technical equipment, and large resource consumption. Most of them are now Development research and test verification stage, industrialization demonstration stage, do not have the conditions for large-scale construction. In addition, modern coal chemical industry requires particularly high requirements for environment, resources, water resources, transportation and carrying capacity, and relatively high requirements for technical, investment, capital, and external supporting conditions. It is limited in engineering technology, carbon capture and collection, and investment. High strength, high water consumption, high coal consumption, high emissions.
Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of the China Chemical Network Information Center, told the China Securities Journal reporter that there has been an upsurge in the “heroic†modern coal chemical pilot projects. Some companies have reported for the project to capture coal resources. At present, apart from adopting “three years It is difficult to curb this momentum, except for the "new one-off" policy.
Can the oil price break? "Either way, the development of coal chemical industry is definitely a trend. Compared to oil and natural gas, China's coal reserves are very affluent," said Liu Xintian.
The China Coal and Chemical Industry Association's New Coal Chemical Coordination Committee pointed out that the development of modern coal chemical industry, that is, coal gasification as a leader, based on a carbon chemical, synthetic synthesis of chemical industry mainly to replace petrochemical products and fuel oil, there are It will help promote the implementation of the oil substitution strategy, ensure energy security and achieve energy diversification.
From this point of view, the key to the development of modern coal chemical industry lies in the substitution effect on the petroleum process route. "The level of oil prices may directly affect the attitude toward the development of coal chemical industry." Liu Xintian said.
Analysts pointed out that at the end of 2008, when the price of oil dropped the deepest, the decline in international coal prices was also smaller than the decline in international oil prices. In 2009, affected by the economic crisis, the prices of resource products showed a certain amount of decline. In contrast, the decline in coal prices was far less than the price drop of other resource products. The level of oil prices in 2009 was much flatter than in 2008, and the highest level has just reached 80 US dollars. In contrast, China's coal prices still have room.
Liu Xintian believes that in the external environment, autumn and winter have always been the peak period of coal use, this year the problem of shortage of coal is more prominent, coupled with oil prices did not break through 80 US dollars for a long period of time, coal prices are not outstanding compared to oil prices This may be one of the reasons why the current policy aspect is very cautious about modern coal chemical industry.
“In fact, if the tension with coal eases and the oil price rises quickly, the alternative meaning of coal chemical industry will immediately become apparent. The policy may turn to strong support for modern coal chemical industry.†Liu Xintian said, “If the price of oil returns To 100 US dollars or even more than 120 US dollars, coal chemical industry will have a considerable economy, and policies may change."
Whether technology can break through China's Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, deputy director of the Ministry of Information and Marketing Zhu P pointed out that modern coal chemical industry is mostly a demonstration project, if there is a major breakthrough in technology, it may push the policy side to give more support.
Modern coal chemical industry such as coal to oil, coal to olefins, coal to natural gas, and coal to glycol are still in the stage of equipment commissioning or construction. They are basically pilot sites, and some will be commercialized in 2010. The technical issues and commercial operations are still the key issues of modern coal chemical industry. For example, Shenhua Coal Oil Project has recently announced that it has formally put into production. Coal-based oil companies have also successfully obtained qualifications for refined oil products, but there is still a long distance from reaching production. It is estimated that it will take another one to two years for the company to mature after it is put into production. As for the large-scale commercial value, it is impossible to talk about it now.
The Asian Chemical Consulting Group believes that following successful industrialization demonstration projects such as coal-to-oil, coal-to-olefins, coal-to-synthetic natural gas, and coal-to-ethylene glycol, they will have to rely on the macroeconomic environment, market conditions, and cost competitiveness of these projects. To decide whether to promote it on a large scale.
The agency expects that China's already established coal-to-oil demonstration projects will enter commercial operations one after another. In 2010, it will achieve a coal-to-oil production capacity of 1.68 million tons/year, directly liquefying the oil from coal and indirect liquefied coal. Sex, product solutions and quality indicators will stand the test of the market.
Sinochem Consulting believes that it will be difficult for China to approve new coal-to-olefins projects until the three demonstration projects verify the economic feasibility and technical reliability of coal-to-olefins. The coal-to-olefins project should be planned with petroleum olefins in an integrated manner to avoid duplication of capacity in the region. In addition, due to the high number of low-end grades of polyethylene and polypropylene in China, and the shortage of high-end products, the product scheme of coal-to-olefins should be closer to the high end.
In addition to domestic integrated petrochemical companies, China’s coal-based ethylene glycol competitors also include ethylene glycol production companies in the Middle East that use low-priced ethane or naphtha. The production cost of coal glycol and the stable operation of the plant will be an important factor in determining its competitiveness.
Modern coal chemical "overheating" triggers policy warning
“After last year, one document after another supported five modern coal chemical industries, and companies started planning projects. They are now suddenly 'changing their faces', a bit unclear and a blow to many companies.†A senior researcher in the coal industry Speaking of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, “modern coal chemical industry does not approve new pilots in three years†policy frequently shook his head.