The "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from the 2016 China Distributed Photovoltaic Quality Construction Summit Forum that the 2017 PV benchmarking price plan has entered the final approval process and will be officially announced in the near future. In the case of a sharp cut in the price of centralized power stations, it is expected that the distributed photovoltaics that the Energy Bureau has pushed for many years will start to grow rapidly in 2017.
In recent years, with the support of national electricity price subsidies and other policies, the scale of photovoltaic power generation has expanded rapidly. Yan Lili, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, expects more than 33 million kilowatts of installed capacity in 2016, with a cumulative total of over 76 million kilowatts and an annual growth rate of over 75%.
It is worth noting that the current centralized construction of photovoltaic power plants is more obvious. From January to November this year, the newly installed large-scale centralized power stations installed 28.45 million kilowatts, accounting for 89% of all photovoltaic power generation, with a cumulative installed capacity of 65.57 million kilowatts. The distributed photovoltaic power generation increased by 3.66 million kilowatts, an increase of 45% year-on-year, with a total of 9.72 million kilowatts. The installed capacity of all photovoltaic power stations accounted for 13%, and the development scale was still significantly lower than expected.
According to the “13th Five-Year Planâ€, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation should reach 105 million kilowatts or more in 2020. The main task is to allocate resources through market competition, promote the decline of photovoltaic power generation costs and the rise of technology level, and the electricity price of photovoltaic projects should be sold with the power grid. The electricity price is equivalent.
In fact, this policy idea has already been reflected. Following the reduction of the benchmark price of photovoltaic power generation from 0.02 yuan to 0.1 yuan per kWh last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Adjusting the New Energy Benchmark Price (Consultation Draft)" in September this year, which is intended to be one, two, and three. The PV on-grid tariffs of ground power stations in large resource areas were reduced from 0.80 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 0.98 yuan to 0.55 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively. For distributed PV, the mode of “spontaneous self-use and surplus electricity access†is implemented according to the mode of full power subsidy. The subsidy standards are: 0.2 yuan/kWh for a resource zone, 0.25 yuan/kWh for a second-class resource zone, and three types of resources. The area is 0.3 yuan / kWh, while the current standard is 0.42 yuan / kWh.
The introduction of this opinion draft caused an uproar in the entire photovoltaic industry. After the revision, the new version of the distributed subsidy standard was upgraded to 0.35 yuan/kWh for the first and second types of resources and 0.4 yuan/kWh for the third category. "The final extent is not known, but the new pricing policy should come out before the end of the year." Lu Fang, secretary general of the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, revealed.
Shi Lili believes that the current adjustment of electricity price level is difficult to reflect the change of renewable energy power generation cost. The large and low frequency of electricity price adjustment leads to large fluctuations in the renewable energy power generation market, which is not conducive to the continued sound development of the industry. If the electricity price and subsidies are lowered in 2017, the domestic PV market may re-copy the situation in 2016. The newly installed capacity may exceed 25 million kilowatts, and the product price may also be significantly different in different time periods.
Yao Yao, an analyst at Guojin Securities, believes that the relative investment attractiveness of distributed projects will be considered in view of the significant downward adjustment of benchmark power prices for centralized power plants in 2017, the reduction of project indicators in the Three North Region, and the limited power conditions that are still difficult to improve in the short term. Will be greatly improved. In addition, the advancement of electricity reform on the distribution side, especially the gradual establishment of electricity market transactions, will also push up the construction demand for distributed photovoltaic projects. It is expected that the distributed photovoltaics that the Energy Bureau will push for many years will start from 2017. Rapid growth, the proportion of new installed capacity is expected to increase significantly to more than 30% (only 10% in 2015), and is expected to gradually achieve user side parity from 2018.
In the “13th Five-Year Plan†of power generation, the goal of distributed PV development is to reach 60GW in 2020, with an average annual increase of at least 10GW. Feng Qingdong, chief expert of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, believes that distributed photovoltaics mainly cover three types of rooftop distributed photovoltaics, shoal fish ponds, and agricultural greenhouses. However, the current individual enterprises seize the roof resources, resulting in the random location of the project, and it is difficult to quickly and fully subsidize the funds, and there are problems in the local local and local time.
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