After the local and national conferences in 2015, the “Belt and Road†became a hot word in the market, and the research on the impact of the “One Belt, One Road†on the Chinese economy also entered the period of development. Minsheng Securities recently released a research report saying that at present, the scale of the proposed “One Belt, One Road†infrastructure under construction has reached 1.04 trillion yuan, and the scale of cross-border investment is about 52.4 billion US dollars. It is expected to affect the newly added investment of 400 billion yuan in 2015. Drive GDP growth by 0.25 percentage points. Pa6 Flame Retardant,Good Rubber Flame Retardant,Engineering Thermoplastics Flame Retardant,Melagard Mc Flame Retardant SHANDONG TAIXING ADVANCED MATERIAL CO., LTD. , https://www.fr-chem.com
The macro team of Minsheng Securities believes that the “One Belt, One Road†strategy will cover 4.4 billion people in 26 countries and regions and will generate an economic effect of 21 trillion US dollars. The world's longest economic corridor, the largest market, will generate the greatest investment opportunities.
According to the report, from the public statistics of the news, the total investment scale of the “One Belt, One Road†infrastructure investment project in the provincial government's 2015 work report has reached 1.04 trillion yuan, mainly including Chongqing, Sichuan, Ningxia, Jiangsu, Hainan, Yunnan and Shaanxi. , Guangxi, Zhejiang and other provinces and cities. From the perspective of project distribution, it is mainly based on “iron public aircraft†(railway, highway, airport), accounting for 68.8% of all investment.
In addition, the “One Belt, One Road†overseas investment project is also advancing rapidly. According to the statistics of more than 20 overseas projects collected, the total planned and under construction investment reached 52.47 billion US dollars, mainly concentrated in Central Asia, South Asia and other regions. The investment direction is more energy, railway, highway and other infrastructure. Mainly.
Although the “Belt and Road†is huge, the organization is still cautious about whether the above investment can be achieved. Minsheng Securities believes that under the current situation of tight government finances, whether the investment enthusiasm of the “One Belt, One Road†construction of the central and local governments can fall will depend on whether the “money bag†can be effectively expanded. Under the premise of not engaging in strong stimulus and large water release, the source of funds may mainly rely on three channels: debt replacement, PPP and AIIB.
“Considering the impact of the infrastructure multiplier and the GDP deflator, we expect to boost GDP growth by 0.25 percentage points in 2015â€. The report believes that with the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road†policy, China’s passive tightening is likely to reverse in the second half of the year, thus changing the expectation of slowing economic growth. Superimposed moderately loose monetary policy, the fund re-allocation effect will continue to play a role, the stocks and debts of the two bulls are expected to continue