Resumption of production of alumina capacity in most regions intensifies market surplus

According to relevant sources, the company was originally in the deferred period of aluminum Chongqing 800,000 tons of alumina project is ready to resume construction. Prior to this, Aluminium Shandong Branch had resumed 400,000 tons in March, and Henan Branch has recovered nearly 1 million tons of alumina production capacity.
According to statistics, from March to now, domestic alumina production has started to resume production, and the total production volume has been 5 million to 6 million tons.
“At present, the total domestic alumina production capacity is about 21.5 million tons.” Aluminium industry analysts said that due to the stabilization of electrolytic aluminum prices and the resumption of production by electrolytic aluminum companies, domestic alumina producers are also eager to resume production, with the exception of aluminum. Many major alumina companies, including Weiqiao Aluminum, Shandong Lubei, Henan Cayman and Dongfang Hope, have conducted trial production of alumina production lines that had been in stagnation in the past two months.
At the same time, domestic alumina imports have released days. The latest release of the Customs Express data shows that the import volume of alumina in April was 650,000 tons, which was the highest monthly import volume since 2008, second only to the single monthly import volume of 660,000 tons in January 2008. The import volume of alumina in April increased by 140% from the previous month, and the cumulative imports from January to April was 1.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91%.
However, as a direct raw material for electrolytic aluminum, the release of domestic alumina production capacity and the surge in alumina imports have not been supported by the supporting scale of electrolytic aluminum production. By the aluminum price from last year's low of 10,040 yuan / ton price rose to 14,900 yuan on April 10 this year / ton stimulation, electrolytic aluminum enterprises started in February began to gradually start the electrolytic cell, ready to resume production. However, the high price of aluminum did not last too long, since late April, domestic aluminum prices have been 徘徊12000-13,000 yuan / ton, which greatly undermined the electrolytic aluminum business complex impulse.
In March, there were plans to resume the production of electrolytic aluminum with a total capacity of more than 1.9 million tons, and until now, the actual starting capacity was less than half of the planned amount. If one ton of electrolytic aluminum is required to produce 1.9 tons of alumina, the capacity of re-produced alumina is higher than that of electrolytic aluminum by 3.2 million tons.
Faced with a large number of complex production, domestic alumina prices have also been reflected. It is reported that on the day of aluminum production restart in Shandong, the surrounding small-scale small alumina producers immediately lowered the factory price. At present, the domestic alumina price is close to 2,000 yuan per ton, while the current alumina alumina alumina quote is 2,300 yuan per ton.
According to understanding from Lianyungang, the amount of imports in April was ended, and the import volume in May is still not a small figure. At present, only Lianyungang has an alumina inventory of about 900,000 tons, and the total stock of ports in the country is about 1.5 million tons. Shan Guibin believes that the import of alumina in May may be lower than in April, but the import volume of more than 400,000 tons per month is almost certain.
“According to the current situation, alumina prices will continue to decline.” Aluminium enterprise traders have determined that the future domestic alumina prices are likely to be suppressed to below 2,000 yuan/ton, and it is expected that aluminum alumina prices will also be offered in June. Follow the line. The decline in domestic alumina prices will become an influx of imported alumina, so the current release of imported air is actually not terrible

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