Rising coal prices forced the increase of on-grid tariffs or the introduction of the second half of the year

In the situation where the tariff adjustment may bring about a rise in coal prices, it is still unpredictable whether the related power companies can benefit in the long term.

The plan or the second half of the year

Although the news of the price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission has not been denied by the government at present, and different price adjustment programs have been reported in various provinces and regions, people familiar with the matter told the China Securities Journal that only 16 provinces in the province that want to adjust prices currently only start in Shanxi. Electricity was raised by 2.6 points. Plans for other provinces and regions are still in the early stage of preparation.

“The National Development and Reform Commission is asking local companies to report losses last year. After aggregating, a detailed plan has to be worked out. This requires a process.” The person said that if it goes well, it may not be possible until the second half of the year. Program.

Analysts pointed out that although the electricity price adjustment itself is a good thing for thermal power companies, but given that the time for the complete adjustment of electricity price adjustment policy is uncertain, the market’s expectation of favorable results for thermal power companies may also be postponed.

It is understood that the adjustment of on-grid tariffs is another step toward reversing the general loss situation of power companies following the introduction of the "limit order" for coal. Zhou Xiujie, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Advisors, believes that if the price of the key contract coal and the agreement cash rate are maintained at the level of the previous year, plus the adjustment of the on-grid tariff, the policy goal of ending the loss at the end of the year may be realized.

The sixteen provinces and districts unifiedly raised the on-grid price of thermal power, but the industry generally began to show concern. With the implementation of the on-grid tariff adjustment policy, will it bring about the adjustment of the sales price.

In this regard, Zhou Xiujie believes that the current adjustment of the on-grid price without adjusting the sales price is a policy consideration that needs to ease the current high CPI level. In the long run, the adjustment of sales price is a general trend. Once the rising price of the upstream industry is obvious and continuous, the downstream will inevitably conduct price evacuation work, and the adjustment of the sales price will wait for opportunities. As electricity consumption continues to rise, price increases are inevitable.

Founder Securities analysts also pointed out that the increase in on-grid tariffs is a short-term solution to ease the sustained losses of thermal power companies, and a modest increase in sales prices and the promotion of large-scale application of new energy power generation is the fundamental solution to the coal power upside down problem.

However, the above-mentioned informed sources told the reporter that considering the uncertainty of the impact of the sales price adjustment on the intensified impact of the current domestic inflation situation, there is currently no intention to adjust the price of electricity sold by residents and non-residents.

Coal prices will rise

Although the tariff adjustment has a significant effect on the short-term performance of the power sector, many analysts have said that in the long-term, the semi-market-oriented coal price will not be able to withstand the trend of rising electricity prices. The rise in coal prices will partially offset the positive effect of tariff adjustments.

Zhou Xiujie said that before the increase in electricity prices, some thermal power companies tried to reduce their losses and tried to buy less coal and less electricity, but the market demand for electricity continued to rise. Therefore, the adjustment of electricity prices will increase the power generation rate of thermal power plants to a certain extent, which will increase the demand for thermal coal and further increase the price of coal. He also believes that the rise in coal prices is a long-term trend. Due to the loss of thermal power industry, the elasticity of its price increase has been suppressed. At present, the international situation is turbulent. The rise in freight, refined oil and other prices has brought a new round of momentum to the rise in coal prices.

Founder Securities believes that the current adjustment of electricity prices is only a temporary measure to improve the profitability and cash flow of power plants, and it does not even involve the issue of inverted coal prices. The second quarter is the traditional thermal power off-season, and the third quarter is the peak of electricity consumption. If the coal price in the third quarter is higher than the current one, there may be risk of cash flow fracture in some areas of thermal power, which will once again force the on-grid tariff upwards.

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