Linear Motor,Linear Motor Platform,Linear Stepper Motor,Dc Motor Linear Dongguan Baolai Automation Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.dgbaolaizdh.com
Li Shaochun said that the dioxin flammable and explosive chemical properties and the oversupply of the status quo, so that its regional sales characteristics are very clear. As production costs increase from the north to the south, since the beginning of last year, dimethyl ether in the northeast region has been almost as digested; in the northwest, dimethyl ether has been sold mainly to Henan and Sichuan; in North China, dimethyl ether has been sold mainly to central and eastern China; central and southwest China The dimethyl ether was then shipped to the higher-priced South China and East China markets. Through this relay-type marketing, DME companies have been able to operate profitably in the narrow gap between the financial crisis and the overcapacity. However, the Guangdong blockade incident caused the last great relay to be cut off. Sales of dimethyl ether in central and southwest regions were hindered, forcing DME in the northwest and north China regions to fail to advance eastward and southward, breaking the balance between supply and demand, leading to industry The average operating rate dropped from about 50% at the beginning of the year to 40%.
Hu Kepeng, chief economist of Yulin Natural Gas Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., told CCIN reporters that since last October, the methanol market has experienced a wave of sustained rally. By the end of last year, the ex-factory price of methanol in the northwest region had soared to 2,500 yuan, and continued. Two months remained at the high level of 2350-2500 yuan. However, the Guangdong blockade incident has completely changed the trend of the methanol market, suppressing the price of methanol to continue to decrease, and is currently close to the breakeven point of most companies.
Wang Fengan, chemical sales manager of Henan Coal Chemical Group Zhongyuan Dahua Co., Ltd., reported to CCIN reporters that after Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai also increased the investigation of dimethyl ether blended liquefied gas, leading to dimethyl ether in East China. Demand for methanol and methanol have decreased substantially, and prices have fallen, dragging down the price of alcohol ether in the country. At present, the ex-factory price of methanol in Henan Province is only 2,300 yuan, and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether is about 3,500 yuan. In addition, the ex-factory prices of methanol in Sichuan, Anhui, and Shanghai were only 2,300 yuan, 2,500 yuan, and 2,600 yuan respectively; the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether fell to 3,600 yuan, 3,800 yuan, and 4,000 yuan respectively.
Regarding the trend of the alcohol ether market in the latter part of the year, people in the industry, although they have different views, generally believe that it is difficult to be optimistic.
Hu Kepeng believes that the consumption of methanol in the dimethyl ether field in 2009 accounted for 22% of the country's apparent methanol consumption, second only to formaldehyde, becoming the second largest consumer market for methanol. If the relevant laws and standards restricting the legal use of dimethyl ether cannot be introduced and improved as soon as possible, the trend of the alcohol ether market will be difficult to be optimistic later. According to his estimation, by the end of this year, the national methanol production capacity will increase to 35 million tons, while the demand will not exceed 18 million tons. In addition, this year, China’s tariffs on imported products including ASEAN, New Zealand, and Chile, including methanol, have been greatly reduced, and some even implement zero tariffs, which will inevitably lead to a large influx of foreign methanol into China, aggravating the contradiction in the domestic methanol market oversupply.
Li Shaochun believes that the closure of the Guangdong incident has attracted the attention of various sectors of the community and even the relevant state agencies. It is believed that with the joint efforts of all parties, relevant standards and measures will be accelerated and the DME as a city gas application policy barrier will be completely eliminated. Dimethyl ether consumption surged, which in turn has a positive impact on the methanol market.
Wang Fengan said that about 40% of China's methanol production capacity comes from ammonia-alcohol cogeneration plants. These companies can flexibly adjust their alcohol and fertilizer production based on the market conditions of fertilizers and methanol. At present, the price of methanol is already close to the cost of most companies. If it continues to fall, it will inevitably reduce or even stop methanol production, increase fertilizer production, ease the contradiction in the supply of methanol in excess of demand, and curb the drop in methanol prices.
Li Chengwei, director of Anhui Linquan Chemical Co., Ltd., is more optimistic. He said that, on the one hand, the rise in international oil and natural gas prices has increased the operating costs of methanol producers, making it unlikely that they dump methanol in China again; on the other hand, the Ministry of Commerce started importing imports from the Middle East and other places in June 2009. The anti-dumping investigation of methanol will reduce the impact of imported methanol on the domestic market this year.
Zhang Erhong, deputy director of the Office of Methanol Expert Committee of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, agreed with Li Chengwei’s analysis. He believes that in January this year, China imported a total of 220,000 tons of methanol, which is only half of the average monthly imports last year. The amount of imports in February also showed a significant year-on-year decrease. In the later period, as China and the global economy recover, the operating rate of acetic acid, methyl tert-butyl ether, formaldehyde and other enterprises will continue to rise, and the demand for methanol will increase rigidly. If M15 methanol gasoline is promoted in the regional joint promotion, the methanol demand will increase by several million tons, which will form a strong support for the alcohol ether market.
However, Zhang Erhong and others also reminded that due to over half of the excess capacity of alcohol ethers in our country, once the price exceeds the cost, the devices that had previously cut production or stopped production will start quickly, increasing the production of alcohol ethers, and suppressing the price upwards. Therefore, on the whole, although the price of alcohol ether after a deep drop will rebound, the rebound rate is also very limited, and the state of low-profit business of alcohol ether companies is difficult to change.
The end of the sales "stick out" plagued with alcohol after the market
"At present, the ex-factory price of methanol is only 2250 to 2350 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether falls back to 3,470 yuan, which is 350 yuan and 800 yuan lower than the highest price since this year, and the sales radius is also Is shrinking." March 26, Shaanxi Suihua Group Vice Minister of Sales Li Shaochun in an interview with CCIN reporters said: Guangdong dimethyl ether "blocked" incident on the alcohol ether market's adverse impact has become increasingly apparent, and has spread throughout the country , suppressing the decline in alcohol ether prices.