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In theory, today is the fourth month of the implementation of the diesel emission standard in the country. However, according to a survey conducted by the reporter, the reality of the implementation of the standard is “different opinions and invisible viewsâ€. The failure of the National IV standard to implement the entire nation is a foregone conclusion. This is a thorn in the case of listed companies that have invested heavily in advance placement.
More importantly, in a city where smog and pollution are so severe, the implementation of the Fourth National Standard once again delayed the accident.
Looking at the flowers in the fog, the reporter consulted the public information of the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and learned that the four standards of diesel vehicles were promulgated in 2005. At that time, it was stipulated that starting July 1, 2011, all manufactured and sold light vehicle pollutant emissions must meet the requirements of the National IV standard. Afterwards, as China National IV Vehicle Fuel Standard has not yet been introduced, it is still unable to ensure the supply of the corresponding vehicle fuel nationwide, and it has decided to postpone the implementation of the National IV standard until July 1, 2013.
Now, a month later, according to a survey by the reporter, the implementation of the four standards for diesel vehicles has actually become a “look in the fogâ€.
In an interview with reporters yesterday, a commercial vehicle salesman in Shanghai said that overall, the nationwide implementation has not yet begun, and only some “conditional†regions have taken the lead. “According to our distributors, there are 18 cities in the country that have issued documents, but the implementation is still not well understood. After all, trucks are a means of transportation that moves across provinces,†he told reporters.
Although most provinces and cities declared that after July 1st, the new diesel cars of Guosan could no longer be registered, but the dealer told reporters that many county-level cities or remote areas still allowed Guosan new car to be on the card and stated that “no one will checkâ€. According to sources, the Wuhan IV national emission standard will be postponed until December 31, 2013, and Shanxi Taiyi Principle declared that “the national standard and the medium-sized vehicles before the July 1, 2013 can be used for the certificate and vehicle purchase invoices. Apply for registration of motor vehicles."
A report from Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute pointed out that from the perspective of the advancement of laws and regulations, the Fourth National Emissions Regulations must be implemented. Firstly, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China will stop the declaration of declarations of the third country's emission products, and then the production of the third national product will stop. Finally, sales will stop. Taking into account that if the products that have just been declared immediately stop selling, it will result in the waste of social resources. Therefore, there will be a certain period of time before the sales stoppage time of the three products of the State is shorter than the time for the announcement to stop reporting. Based on this, the market expects that the suspension of sales of the National 3 products on July 1st has actually failed.
At present, it is a foregone conclusion that the National IV standard has not been fully implemented nationwide.
However, industry insiders told reporters that the implementation of the National IV standard will not be postponed for a long time even if it is postponed, because the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced that it has stopped reporting. Referring to the actual progress of the past upgrades, from 2007 to 2008, the country of the second national escalator from the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stopped reporting and stopped selling, which was about 9 to 10 months. Therefore, many people have calculated that the full implementation of the National IV emission standard will take place from January 1, 2014 to July 1, 2014.
Some commercial vehicle companies and their suppliers believe that the implementation of the National IV standard has not been postponed but only has a certain buffer period. Judging from the recent performance of some core suppliers, China IV is still advancing vigorously. From the data of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, many DOCs and POCs of the National IV diesel vehicles are supplied by Nanjing Ikocat Catalytics Co., Ltd. This is a Chinese-funded company that introduced Finnish "Ikocat" company technology. The company has been particularly busy in recent months and has been busy giving some customers emission tests for the National IV vehicle.
The impact of layout on the four standards of commercial vehicle countries has not been fully implemented, and has affected many listed companies that have invested heavily in four-engine production countries.
The relevant personage of Weifu Hi-Tech (20.42, -0.370, -1.78%) said that the implementation of the National IV standard has not yet caused obvious benefits to the company's orders. Due to the influence of the heavy truck industry entering the off-season in the third quarter, the company's orders in July showed a seasonal decline relative to June. However, the company is more optimistic about the sales of the heavy truck market and related products of the country.
Since the implementation of the Fourth National Standard, Weifu Hi-tech has attracted market attention mainly due to its industry-leading fuel injection technology and high-pressure common-rail technology that can meet China's four emission standards. As the current economic situation has not yet significantly improved, and the National IV standard is currently only implemented in some areas where conditions permit, the company said that the implementation of the National IV emission standard has not had a significant impact on the company's orders. However, the company is optimistic about this.
Weifu High-tech personnel said that at present, the economic situation has not yet seen significant growth, and the downstream heavy-duty truck industry has no obvious recovery, and it has entered the off-season from the third quarter. In this case, sales of heavy trucks with higher selling prices will be suppressed. Therefore, there is no outstanding performance on the company's orders.
After experiencing heavy truck sales in the second quarter, heavy truck sales began to enter the off-season in July. As a result, the order status of related upstream parts suppliers including Weifu Hi-Tech also experienced a seasonal fall. The data from the first commercial vehicle shows that sales volume in the heavy truck market increased by 39% year-on-year in the second quarter, and thus cumulative sales of heavy trucks changed from negative growth in the first quarter to 8.4% in the first half of the year.
As for the reasons for the rapid growth in the sales volume of the heavy truck market in the second quarter, the market speculated that it was caused by the implementation of the “fourth policy last bus†effect caused by the implementation of the national fourth emission standard. However, Weifu Tech thinks that from the previous year's view, heavy truck sales were better in the first quarter, but heavy truck sales fell sharply in the first quarter of this year, postponing the peak sales season to the second quarter, while not excluding some consumers from considering Standard implementation and advance purchase of cars. However, as a whole, it is normal for sales to increase by about 8% year-on-year in the first half of the year.
Weifu High-tech personnel also said that since July, the heavy truck market has entered the off-season, and orders for the company's orders and related engine makers have fallen sequentially, which is a normal situation in the traditional off-season factor. What is the specific order situation, we must look at the off-season sales situation of heavy trucks. It is expected that the order situation can be gradually restored by the end of September.
The reporter learned from another diesel engine listed company that the company has invested more than RMB 1 billion in an expansion project. The main production capacity is the national standard passenger car diesel engine. A company official said that because the country’s fourth product is more expensive than the country’s three standards, if there is no national mandatory standard, it is probably more difficult to promote. At present, most of the production capacity is idle. “At present, there is already a voice in the industry that hopes to unite and promote the implementation of the National IV standard as soon as possible. This is a matter that needs to be actively promoted for light-duty diesel engine manufacturers of passenger vehicles.â€
In fact, many diesel listed companies have been aiming for the National IV standard to build capacity and technology ahead of schedule. Among them, the stocks raised by Shangchai (14.50, -0.230, -1.56%) in 2011 include mid-light diesel engines and the development and manufacture of light-duty diesel engines. According to report, these projects are all four national standard products.
Industry insiders believe that although the implementation of the National IV standard for light-duty diesel vehicles has been postponed, due to the stricter emission management of light passenger products, most of the products on the market have reached the National IV standard. Therefore, the delay in the implementation of the standard will have little impact on the manufacturers of commercial light diesel engines. On the other hand, the trend of increasing market share of diesel vehicles in the future will not change due to the implementation of standards. According to the long-term trend of energy conservation and environmental protection, the substitution effect of diesel engines is obvious.
Vehicle application reporters interviewed several car companies and learned that commercial vehicle companies have already done adequate “homework†for the implementation of the National IV standard. Today, the implementation of the "four parts" of the national standard also surprised them.
As early as 2009, Shaanxi Automobile completed the initial listing of the Cummins State Quadruple Card. According to a person from Shaanxi Auto, the technical platform of Shaanxi Automobile Cummins' four standard series heavy trucks is very mature and reliable, and basically meets the national IV emission standards. Ao Ling of Foton Motors (5.07, -0.020, -0.39%) has also entered the national standard. As early as two years ago, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles had made technical upgrades to meet the four standards for commercial vehicles. The relevant person in charge of the company stated that Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle can fully comply with the national standards and launch products that meet the standards on the stipulated date.
China National Heavy Duty Truck (9.33, 0.000, 0.00%) also did not show weakness, and took the lead in applying for the national standard car model. Valin Xingma (10.25, -0.150, -1.44%) Chairman Liu Hanru said that Valin Xingma has been prepared and its star Kama CM6D18 and CM6D28 series of high-power engines meet international standards.
Ten days ago, SAIC Commercial Vehicle Chase introduced a new 2014 V80 model and upgraded its models such as Zunjie, Shangjie and Pride Express. According to reports, SAIC's E-CO-D series diesel engine is planned to be the national standard at the beginning of R&D, and by upgrading EDC and combining its third-generation high pressure common rail supercharging technology, it can reach the light passenger diesel engine on the current market. The best 1800Pa, at the same time technical improvements to the oil supply system and the combustion system and through a lot of experiments to achieve high tolerance to sulfur content, can withstand the three standard oil products.
The reporter noted that from the view of the Ministry of Environmental Protection's approval of the National IV emission standard light-duty diesel vehicles, larger light commercial vehicle companies already have the technology to upgrade the National IV. Since the Ministry of Environmental Protection officially began reviewing light diesel vehicles for the National IV emission standard in July 2010, larger light commercial vehicle companies (such as Nanjing Automobile, Jiangling, Jinbei, Beiqi Foton, Jianghuai and Chang'an Automobile (8.74, -0.070, -0.79) %), SAIC commercial vehicles) all have models approved by the Ministry of Environmental Protection. Some companies, such as Nanjing Iveco, even had models approved by the Ministry of Environmental Protection as early as 2009.
Environmental protection pressure "In the case of haze pollution in the city is so severe, the national standard for light diesel vehicles has also been postponed twice across the country. This is incredible." Industry sources said. In fact, exhaust emissions from motor vehicles have become the main source of air pollution in China, and are an important cause of haze and photochemical smog pollution. At the same time, because motor vehicles are mostly driven in densely populated areas, tail gas emissions directly threaten human health. As far as nitrogen oxides are concerned, motor vehicle emissions have accounted for more than a quarter of total pollution. The automobile is the main contributor to the total amount of pollutants in motor vehicles. Its emissions of nitrogen oxides and PM exceed 90%, and hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide exceed 70%.
It is worth noting that the national motor vehicle population increased by 9.2% in 2011, but the pollutant emissions only increased by 3.5%. This started with the full implementation of the four national emission standards for commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, accelerated the phase-out of high-emission "yellow vehicles," and improved vehicle fuel quality. The emissions of bicycles that meet the National IV standard are reduced by about 30% compared with the National 3, which shows that the implementation of higher automobile emission standards as soon as possible is an effective way to curb pollution growth.
According to the calculation of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China will add about 100 million motor vehicles, and the consumption of gasoline and diesel will increase by 100 million tons to 150 million tons. The resulting environmental pressure will become even greater. .
In this regard, the industry believes that there are three reasons, lower fuel quality restricts the use of vehicles and emission effects; China's commercial vehicles and heavy-duty diesel engine manufacturers are mostly independent brands, lack of technical reserves; commercial vehicles and heavy-duty diesel engines to meet higher emission standards are often increased The cost of one to tens of thousands of yuan is not acceptable to users. Among them, the oil problem is considered to be the main reason.
Jia Xinguang, executive director of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that the implementation of the National IV standard should not be postponed. The key is to solve the oil problem. Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that if the standards are implemented as scheduled, they will face the problem of inadequate supply of denitrification agent for the four diesel oils in the producing country and regulatory issues for the universal use of the National IV diesel.
According to a report from Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, China's self-owned brand light commercial vehicle companies, especially light-guest passengers, are not capable of producing engines themselves, but have to purchase engines from Cummins, Yuchai, and others. The National IV diesel engine not only uses such high-price technology as high-pressure common rails (the technology is basically in the hands of foreign companies such as Bosch), but also adds exhaust gas after-treatment systems. As a result, the cost of the entire vehicle has greatly increased. This is a major challenge for self-owned brand light commercial vehicle companies that rely on price advantages. 
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