Or shorten the domestic oil price adjustment time to 10 working days, increase the new oil supply or exchange reference oil. With the domestic refined oil price cut during the year, when the new pricing mechanism of refined oil products will become the focus of the market. Industry insiders analyzed that the new pricing mechanism is expected to be launched with the next oil price cut, the fastest should be in June. At that time, the price adjustment period of refined oil will be shortened from the current 22 working days to 10 working days, and the type of crude oil may be adjusted. Hips Sheet For Printing,High Impact Polystyrene Yard Signs,High Impact Ps Sheet,High Impact Polystyrene Hips Yixing Guanyu New Materials Co.,Ltd , https://www.maplasticsheetsupply.com
From 0:00 on May 10, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Price (Trial)" in May 2009, and officially lowered the price of refined oil. The price of gasoline was lowered by 330 yuan/ton, equivalent to 0.24 yuan/liter; diesel oil was lowered by 310 yuan. / ton, equivalent to 0.26 yuan / liter.
Oil prices may fall again in the second half of June
This management method was issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in May 2009. It stipulates that when the spot price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta continues to increase or decrease by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, it can be considered for domestic The maximum retail price of refined oil is adjusted.
Chen Qing, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, told reporters that if the international oil price continues to decline and domestic oil prices are lowered twice in a row, the new pricing mechanism should be introduced with the next price adjustment. The estimated time may be in June. She believes that the choice of a new mechanism when the price of refined oil products is lowered, the market acceptance is relatively high. "On the one hand, inflation is under control and the domestic inflation index is not high. The refined oil market is now in a transitional phase from the off-season to the peak season, and supply and demand are relatively balanced. Second, the international oil price is in a down cycle. At this time, a new mechanism is introduced and market acceptance Will be higher."
Zhongyu Information analyst Wang Jintao told reporters: "The second quarter is a good time to introduce a new pricing mechanism, because the international oil price continues to fluctuate downwards, and the refined oil in the second half of June may be lowered again."
Will increase the frequency of product oil price adjustment
According to industry insiders close to the National Development and Reform Commission, the new pricing mechanism is divided into four discussion groups, each group submits a set of plans, and the NDRC will eventually decide which set to use. No matter which solution is selected, the price adjustment time will be shortened and the frequency of price adjustment will be increased.
According to Wang Jintao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, after the price adjustment, the pricing period will be shortened. For example, the 22 working days will be shortened to 10 working days, that is, about two weeks. However, he is unlikely to change in a way that increases by a percentage. “The average price of 22 days is hard to reflect the sharp rise and fall of crude oil in two or three days and the changes in market psychology. In addition, the long-term 22-day cycle gives the refined oil market sufficient time to make expectations, which often makes the market enter the short-term. The chaos, the arbitrage behavior of the refined oil market hype, oyster sauce and so on increased."
According to Chen Qing's analysis, even if the time is shortened, as long as the 4% change is still used, the rise and fall will not change. It is reported that in the past many times, the rate of change of crude oil in the three places has been close to 4%, but it has finally lost the price of refined oil due to the sudden turn of international oil prices. This has become an important reason for the rise and fall of refined oil prices in China in recent years. .
Calling crude oil type or change
Chen Qing predicted that the three places currently under reference may change, adding new oil types or changing reference oil types. Wang Jintao suggested that Brent and Dubai should be retained to remove the fast-rising Xinta, introducing the "Oman" crude oil spot and the US New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures "WTI". "Oman" crude oil, like Dubai crude oil, is a pricing reference for Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries to export oil to the Far East. At the same time, Oman itself is one of China's important import sources.
Xinta rose faster than other oils. In 2011, the average price of Xinta crude oil rose by 42% year-on-year, while Dubai crude oil rose by 36.1% year-on-year. Oman crude oil rose by 36.3% year-on-year. So far, the two prices are still lower than Xinta by US$4/barrel. about.
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Internationally, the short-selling, crude oil futures fell 1.4% on May 14, fell below $95 a barrel and hit a new low for the year. International crude oil continued to fall, the trading atmosphere in South China market was deserted, and the willingness of buyers to buy goods was weak, but the actual transaction secretly had a large preferential margin, and some gasoline fell below the million mark.
Greece is in a political deadlock, the euro exchange rate fell, and Saudi Arabia hopes to lower oil prices. In the past nine trading days, the New York Mercantile Exchange June light sweet crude oil futures contract fell eight days, down 10.7%.
According to analysis, the price of oil will approach the threshold of $92.50 per barrel. If it falls below $92.50, it may open the downside, targeting $85 per barrel.