The performance of the automotive industry bleak new energy into the bright spot

The wheels of the automobile industry are rolling forward and pass through the roads of Hirakawa. Occasionally, they will also fall into muddy and rugged terrain. This year's three quarterly report data may not be very optimistic for the automotive industry, the data show that a number of listed car companies in the third quarter results in the same period there was a year-on-year decline or even losses. All kinds of signs indicate that the overall decline in the industry's production and sales is a major drag on the third-quarter sales of listed car companies.

From the point of view of the completed vehicle companies that have issued performance reports, the third-quarter results of several listed car companies such as Great Wall Motors, Jianghuai Auto, FAW Car, FAW Xiali and Jinbei Automobile all experienced different degrees of decline.

Take Jianghuai Automobile as an example. JAC's 2014 third quarter report showed that the company achieved sales revenue of 7.065 billion yuan in the third quarter, down 5.69% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company was -39 million yuan. In the first three quarters, total sales revenue was 25.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.18%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.63%. This is Jianghuai Automobile's first quarterly loss in the past five years.

The decline in sales was considered to be the main reason for the loss in the third quarter. Data show that in the third quarter, Jianghuai Automobile achieved a total sales of 78,500 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 23.58%. Among them, the sales of light trucks of main products was 31,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; the company began to fully implement the National IV light truck products in the second quarter. The sentiment is still strong, resulting in a serious decline in light truck sales. In the medium- and heavy-duty truck industry, despite the obvious competitive advantage of the company's cooperation with Navistar, it was constrained by the sluggish industry and achieved sales of 10,900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. In terms of passenger vehicles, it achieved sales of 34,900 vehicles in the third quarter. The year-on-year decrease of 14.83%.

In fact, Jianghuai Automobile is not a solitary evidence of the performance of production and sales, and Great Wall Motor's performance is also lower than expected. The third quarterly report showed that the company’s operating income for the first three quarters was 42.585 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year, and the company’s vested profits were 5.586 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. The third quarter’s revenue was 14.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. 1.9% realized a vested profit of 1.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%, a decrease of 16.2% from the previous quarter.

Orient Securities analyst Jiang Xueqing believes that the main reason for the sharp slowdown in profit growth of the company is the decline in sedan sales volume, which has led to a decline in profitability. According to statistics, Great Wall Motor sold 70,000 cars in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 53.9%, and sold 14,000 cars in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 68.36%. “The main reason is that the self-owned brand car industry is in decline, and the three quarters of the season Gross profit margin was 27.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, gross profit margin was 28.3% from January to September and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. The performance of the sedan business was dragged down, she said.

This means that it is not only the individual listed car companies that have encountered mud, but the entire automotive industry. In fact, this trend seems to have already been traced. The data released by the China Automobile Association on October 13 showed that in the first nine months of this year, China’s auto production and sales both broke through 17 million vehicles, but the growth rate showed a significant decline. Among them, the sales growth in the month of September was only 2.47% year-on-year, the lowest level this year. According to the data, the automobile production in the month of September was 200.70 million, an increase of 4.18% year-on-year and sales of 1,982,600 vehicles, an increase of 2.47% year-on-year, and sales growth was the lowest level this year.

There are various signs that this trend will not be reversed in the short term. “Since July this year, the growth rate of terminal demand for the passenger vehicle industry has clearly gone down.” Nie Qinglian, an analyst at Industrial Securities, believes that from the actual data, it is expected that the probability of economic improvement will still be minimal, for passenger cars. The overall impact of demand is mostly negative, and the high base caused by the panic buying in some large and medium-sized cities in the first half of the year and the possible decline in demand caused by this factor are declining. Terminal sales growth is expected to remain at least until the second quarter of 2015. low. Not only that, the growth rate of wholesale sales in October is expected to be weaker than that in September due to the higher base, and there will be a higher probability of a slight recovery but a sustained low thereafter.

The data of passenger cars earlier in time shows that, from July to August of this year, the total number of licenses for generalized passenger cars nationwide increased by 9.5% year-on-year (including 12.2% and 6.5% in July and August respectively), which is significantly lower than that in the first half of the year. 16.2% of the total; the more narrowly focused passenger car in July and August, the total number of cards increased by 9.8% year-on-year, which was less than 10% for the first time since the third quarter of 2012.

The industry is cold and the company has a cold. However, this logic does not apply to all listed car companies. Many third-quarter earnings of auto companies still far exceed market expectations.

Take Yutong Automotive as an example. The third quarterly report shows that the company achieved a total operating income of 15.002 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 9.8% year-on-year, and achieved net profit attributable to 1.127 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year, and net profit after deductions rose by 38% year-on-year. Among them, the third quarter achieved Operating income was 5.661 billion yuan, up 41.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 430 million yuan, up 58.7% year-on-year.

In the overall downturn of the auto industry, why did some car companies break through and stand out? The answer is new energy.

Orient Securities believes that Yutong Motor's third-quarter earnings have increased significantly, and even the net profit growth has exceeded revenue growth, and the income growth rate is higher than the sales growth rate. The main reason is that the increase in the proportion of new energy buses leads to an increase in the average price of bicycles and gross profit margin. According to statistics, the number of new-energy buses sold by Yutong Motor in the third quarter of this year was about 1,500 units, which was affected by the policy in the same period last year. The average price of bicycles in the third quarter reached RMB 358,000, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year; The corresponding year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points.

In fact, the new energy business is not only the highlight of Yutong Auto's third quarter report, but also a bright spot in the bleakness of the entire automotive industry. After experiencing the foreshadowing of previous ideas and conceptual speculation, the weight of new energy vehicles in the Chinese automotive industry has become more and more realistic and clear.

The data released by the China Automobile Association recently showed that sales of new energy vehicles in September exceeded 9,000 units, an increase of more than 8 times year-on-year; cumulative sales in the first 9 months reached 38,163 units, an increase of 280% year-on-year. Looking at the quarterly, 2014, the second and the second, In the third quarter, sales were 6,853, 13,624, and 17,686, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 1.6, 2.9, and 3.8, respectively.

The follow-up sales performance can still be expected. “The market is concerned that sales of new energy vehicles will fall after September, but strong order data is a strong support for sales growth in the next few months. Because orders are confirmed after the start of work, it is expected that the sales data of most major models will increase significantly in October. At the end of the year, it will be the peak season for auto consumption, and orders will continue to be added, said Deng Xue, an analyst at Haitong Securities Automotive.

In this context, the agency believes that the investment trend of the new energy auto industry is still not over. “After the market cared about the sales data, whether the relevant investment target started to callback. We believe that it is still in the rising channel, because sales data exceeded expectations and year-on-year performance is still accelerating, and will be higher in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will continue to increase. In the first half of next year, there will be related subsidies and incentives, and the potential for consumption will continue to be tapped. Therefore, the investment trend in the new energy automotive industry is still not over. Deng Xue said.