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Today is the fifth day of the New Year. For the Chinese automobile market, it will be very difficult for even the next 50 days to reveal a gratifying smile. Because, despite the increase in car production and sales in 2004 over 2003, the year-on-year growth will be More than 15%, but the "market downturn" is just like the shadow of the sun shining on the ground and the shadow on the ground, closely following the growth of both sales and sales, making the auto market in 2005 "light" (production and sales growth) and "shadow." "The (market downturn) is reflected in dislocation confusion, and this confusion will definitely last long in the new year. One of the biggest shadows comes from the inventory of cars that nobody can tell. In 2004, the sales of cars showed a "vertical falling movement." The auto industry's use of "downturn" in the past year was already a consensus of the industry. Looking at the sales figures from 2002 to 2004, it was not difficult to find that the first year that the industry insiders called "blowout" was In 2002, the comparison of the number of cars produced and sold in that year was less than sales, and this trend continued until 2003. In the year of 2003, the production and sales of automobiles both increased substantially. In January 2003, the sales growth rate reached 184.81%, close to 200%, which was almost double the sales in the same period. In the market downturn in 2004, there were two most prominent performances. Performance 1, sales growth rate "vertical fall." In November last year, the nation’s car sales were 208,800, compared with 191,300 the year before, which was a year-on-year increase of 6%. But do you know the growth rate in November 2003 compared to November 2002? 67.25%! The growth rate is 10 times that of 2004! Although the absolute number has increased, it can be seen from the growth rate that market sales are shrinking. According to Guo Yun, director of the Asian Games Village Automobile Exchange Market Center, signs of market shrinkage have actually begun to emerge from the end of 2003, but it was a time of alternating old and new, plus last year's Spring Festival in January, holiday sales peaked earlier than in previous years, Masked the market downturn. After the New Year, the wave of manufacturers' price cuts started again, partially stimulating the market. In this way, until April and May, the trend of declining sales was really shown. Performance II: "More porridge and more oysters," dealers "were not fed." The decrease in sales growth means that the "porridge" in the "pot" of the auto market in 2004 was not much, and the "bowl" that can reach into the pot to grab porridge has increased. The number of car dealerships has increased. Take Beijing as an example. At the end of 2003, there were less than 10 auto trading markets and less than 200 franchised stores. By the end of 2004, there were 26 auto trading markets in the Beijing region, nearly 300. Home store. The rate of increase is far greater than the increase in car sales. The pot hasn't become bigger, the porridge hasn't seen much, and there are many people who can eat porridge. Who can “eatâ€? There are reasons behind any phenomenon. Behind the market is the relationship between supply and demand. The most fundamental reason for the downturn in the auto market in 2004 was the imbalance in the supply of goods oversupply caused by production for two consecutive years. Manufacturer inventory is a mystery with the shrinking sales Another situation also occurred at the same time, it has become a hidden danger in the 2004 market downturn, which is the ratio of production and sales growth is not synchronized. From February 2003 to August 2004, one and a half months and 19 months, in addition to the two months of October and December of 2003, the monthly production of cars in the country exceeded the sales volume, which means that From 2003 until 2004, the automotive industry had a certain amount of inventory accumulation each month. This accumulation has not been faithfully reflected in the figures announced by the manufacturers. According to the 2004 car sales figures provided by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the number of car sales was 2.245 million units, and the monthly sales were 203,000 units. Based on the ratio of reasonable inventory, the total inventory of cars in the hands of the national car manufacturers will not exceed 300,000. Vehicle. However, due to the continuous production of domestic enterprises for more than two years, the amount of inventory in some companies is much higher than the upper limit of the reasonable range of inventory. It is conservatively estimated that the inventory of the current national manufacturers is at least 500,000, and manufacturers have to share their financial pressure and For the consideration of leadership achievements, the most commonly used method is to press inventory to the distributor. According to statistics from the China Car Association's 12 auto makers, in November almost all of the last two days of sales, 12 companies completed sales of 40% of the entire month. More than 60% of the 12 major automakers are heavily inventories at pressure dealers, and more than 60% of monthly sales of some companies are realized in the last two days. In the first three days of November, 12 automakers sold only 10,000 vehicles and sold an average of 3,500 vehicles a day. In the last two days of November, the 12 companies sold an average of more than 30,000 vehicles a day. Within a month, The difference between sales at the end of the month and the beginning of the month is 9 times. In 2004, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced that the accumulated inventory of domestic cars from January to July exceeded 110,000. The number of manufacturers does not include merchant inventory. Some people think that the actual inventory may be greatly in excess of 500,000 vehicles. A conservative estimate of dealer stocks can be sold for three and a half months Since manufacturers have so much inventory, where did they flow? As we all know, in the hands of car dealers. According to the manufacturer's calculation method, as long as the car opens the gate of the factory, regardless of whether it is actually sold to the end user, it is considered as the completion of sales. In this way, the concept of "distributor inventory" emerged. The industry believes that when referring to “distributor stocksâ€, it is not possible to think only of negative influences. It should be said that “distributor stocks†have a reasonable amount of scope, and stocks beyond the reasonable range can have a negative impact and are within reasonable limits. The number of stocks can bring good economic benefits to dealers and automobile manufacturers. As long as it is a car dealer, there will be inventory, the key is the number of stocks more or less. This is closely related to the two risks that dealers have in the course of their operations. One is "loss of stockouts" and the other is "financial crisis." The former is due to the lack of supply of manufacturers, dealers supply tight, no car can be sold, it will not generate profits, while the operating costs are still generated, dealers only lose does not earn. The risk of the latter is that the purchase is larger than the sales, the capital turnover period is prolonged, and the car sales do not go out, not only occupying funds, but also paying more to bank interest. Once the loan expires, the dealer cannot repay the loan on schedule, which means that the capital chain is disconnected. , dealers face bankruptcy. Both risks are efforts to avoid in the business operations. How much inventory should a dealer have? Reasonable? Industry analysts believe that, according to the Chinese people's habit of buying cars, usually consumers do not accept the reservation of vehicles, so the way to mention the car after two or three weeks, but stressed the purchase of the car. In this way, domestic automobile sales companies are bound to have a certain amount of inventory to provide customers with the possibility of choosing a car. According to industry-wide calculations, a car store’s reasonable inventory should be 1.2 to 1.5 times its monthly sales. For example, if a dealer sells 100 vehicles a month, his reasonable inventory should be between 120 and 150 vehicles. Less than 120 vehicles will experience "stock loss"; over 150 vehicles will have a "financial crisis." Between the upper limit and the lower limit of these two stocks, the dealers have profits. Exceeding this range, dealers are at risk. At present, the market is always referred to as "distributor inventory" refers to the amount of inventory beyond a reasonable range. How much is this amount? In an interview, the reporter learned that many of the top companies in the 2004 domestic sales category have used the method of selling inventory to dealers to complete sales tasks for the current year. Some dealers were forced to “eat into†the purchase volume for the first three months of the second year. It is said that dealers in Beijing now have asked how much number of overpasses they have had inquire about the number of sales. This means that vehicles can be placed in the open space under the overpass. When the dealers stock large quantities, they temporarily lease the underpass. The open space puts its own stock car. Today, distributors’ inventory begins to “spread†under the overpass, and some dealers already “own†four overpasses. Calculated by more than 100 vehicles under a bridge, the dealer’s inventory is at least 400 vehicles. We will infer that if there are only two "overpasses" in Beijing's franchised stores, Beijing's stores will have at least 60,000 inventories, and according to the average monthly sales of cars in Beijing in the first 11 months of 17,000, a reasonable inventory ceiling It is 23,000 vehicles. The actual inventory quantity is at least 2.6 times that of reasonable inventory. These extra stockpiles are to be sold until the next year. If you add a deadline, it should be three and a half months! How inventory affects the biggest impact of the auto market in 2005 is price instability. How to do so much inventory, manufacturers have already started their actions. Last week, but last week, last week, last three days last year, Tianjin Toyota, Tianjin FAW and Chery announced price cuts. Even the most stable Guangzhou Honda started its price cuts. Sedan fit in the Beijing market fell by 17,000 yuan, hatchback Fit fell by 15,000 yuan. The pressure of inventory was “pained†by manufacturers to manufacturers, because businesses could no longer eat more cars, and manufacturers had to “drain†themselves. Wang Che