·Why is the overall downturn in the automotive industry a new energy vehicle?

In March, the annual Geneva Motor Show ended as scheduled. Compared with this auto show, the auto industry “veteran” Dai Lei is more willing to appreciate the local lakes and lakes of Lake Geneva. Since its inception in 1905, the Geneva Motor Show has been held in an indoor exhibition hall with an exhibition area of ​​more than 70,000 square meters. Although it is not large, it is a place for manufacturers of luxury cars such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi. However, affected by the overall growth of the automobile market and the immature new energy technologies, the Geneva Motor Show, which is known as the “International Automobile Trend Vane”, is somewhat old-fashioned.

In fact, the current status of the entire automotive industry is as old as the Geneva Motor Show. Since the current automotive industry does not have relatively advanced technology, the gap between technology, manufacturing level and technology is getting smaller and smaller.

Dai Lei told the "First Financial Daily" reporter that the biggest highlight of the 2016 Geneva Motor Show is the new energy car company Tesla and China's Internet car company Tekrus Tengfeng, and a three-wheeled electric classic car. .

Luxury car "brake"

The global auto market looks at China.

The growth rate of China's luxury car market has been maintained at 20%. The consulting firm McKinsey released a report in 2013 that China will replace the US as the world's largest luxury car (price over 200,000 yuan) market in 2016.

However, this high growth rate has been stepped on the "brake" in the past 2015. The top ten luxury car brands sold a total of 1.86 million units, an increase of only 4.5% year-on-year. In the same period, the US luxury car market grew by 8% year-on-year, and the sales volume exceeded 2 million. Then, in 2016, McKinsey’s forecast may be lost, and it will take time for China’s luxury car market to catch up with the United States.

In addition to the economic slowdown, the cause of the decline in China's luxury car market is also due to the influx of “new players”.

“When GDP is growing at a high rate, the growth rate of luxury cars is twice that of production cars (ordinary economic models), and when GDP grows at a low speed, the growth rate of luxury cars is only 1/2 of that of production cars.” FAW-Volkswagen General Manager Zhang Yujie believes that China's economic growth growth rate will be in a reasonable range in 2016, which is full of challenges for luxury cars. It is expected that the average economic growth rate will be around 6.5% in the next five years. Under such a growth rate, luxury cars Competition in the market will be more intense.

The industry expects that China's luxury car market is unlikely to continue to maintain incremental expansion. Like developed economies such as Europe and the United States, the overall size of the luxury car market will eventually stabilize at 2 million to 3 million units. In other words, all luxury car brands must fight each other in a relatively “closed” space.

Signs of market share competition have long been revealed. Over the years, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are the first echelons of luxury car brands in the Chinese market. In 2015, Audi experienced the first negative growth in China in 26 years, down 1.4% year-on-year to 570,900 units. The market share of the Audi brand is from In 2013, 34.2% has fallen to 30.6% year by year, and the market share of BMW (including MINI brand) has dropped from 27.1% in 2013 to 24.9% in 2015.

As the growth of the auto market slows down, the golden age of luxury car dealers is no longer.

In 2012, Mercedes-Benz's sharp official pressure triggered a luxury car price earthquake. The stable price system of the luxury car market has gradually collapsed, and the price has become the norm. In 2014, the news that the British super-running manufacturer Aston Martin was heavily sold in five 4S stores in China caused the industry's “luxury car no longer” sigh. It is precisely because of the lack of power in the Chinese market that Ferrari's stock also suffered a sharp fall on the New York Stock Exchange in early February, falling more than 13% to $34.64. In 2015, although Ferrari abandoned “customization” in China to boost sales, in fact, its annual sales in China still fell 22% year-on-year. Not only Ferrari, Rolls-Royce also experienced its first decline in China after five consecutive years of growth in 2015, with sales falling 54% to just 395. Maserati’s sales in China also fell by 21% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the new year, the competition between luxury car brands has started. On January 6, Volvo announced the launch of the new XC90T5 model in Shanghai, and further lowered the price of entry-level models to less than 700,000 yuan. At the same time, the previously listed XC90T6 models also ushered in the official drop, the highest drop of 79,200 yuan; BMW also recently adjusted the price of its BMW X3, BMW X4, BMW X5 and BMW X6, the highest price drop of 51,000 yuan.

For the luxury car brand, the price drop is undoubtedly a “double-edged sword”. The collapsed price system will inevitably affect the brand image of the car companies that have been painstakingly operated for many years. However, the direct price concession is conducive to lowering the food. The market share of the class models, such as the B-class car market.

The latecomers of the market gave up such a high-priced and high-definition pricing strategy. The Japanese luxury car brand Lexus new ES listed directly, the price will be directly reduced to less than 300,000 yuan, to shake the market with low prices, Cadillac CT6 is also in this way.

In the face of market changes, Porsche China President and CEO Fang Zhiyong said in an interview with the “First Financial Daily” reporter that Porsche will introduce more entry-level models while maintaining brand tonality to meet the Porsche brand. But consumers who are not willing to buy at too high a price.

Different from the past, “lie and make money”, before the advent of winter, luxury car brands must think more carefully about product pricing, scale expectations, and cost sharing, in order to prepare for winter food. Accelerating the pace of localization is undoubtedly the key to luxury car brands robbing the market.

The Cadillac brand chose to put its flagship model CT6 in China for mass production, and BMW realized that its localization process was lagging behind its competitors, Mercedes-Benz, and chose to further develop its new engine factory. Settled in China, and said that it will launch three domestic models in China this year. Mercedes-Benz plans to launch six new cars this year, and Audi is trying to cut its price range to less than 150,000 yuan.

The localization process of the second-line luxury car brand is also accelerating. Dongfeng Infiniti's domestically produced models have already begun to contribute sales. The first domestically produced model, Kleijia, is ready to come out. The long-awaited carols will also be unveiled at the Beijing Auto Show this year for the first domestic SUV model... For these latecomers, the best "time" will not be ushered in, and the real test has just begun.

The overall downturn in the industry

Similar to luxury cars, the situation of the entire Chinese car market is not optimistic.

The overall inventory of the market is still high. According to statistics from the China Automobile Dealers Association, the survival environment of Chinese auto dealers was poor in 2014, and the inventory of dealers was high. The inventory factor of dealers in the past eight months was more than 1.5 months. High stocks have caused losses for more than 60% of dealers nationwide.

Wang Cun, senior manager of the marketing department of SINOMACH, told the “First Financial Daily” reporter that after a year of “down inventory”, he achieved a good record, but did not fall to a relatively safe interval, at least In the first half of 2016, there is still a need to further reduce inventory.

In the process of reducing inventory, from the car companies to the retail terminals, more immediate means - price cuts.

In March 2015, Shanghai Volkswagen announced that some models will start to cut prices. As of June 2015, all models of Shanghai Volkswagen have implemented official guidance prices of 8,000-10,000 yuan. Affected by this, many mainstream car companies, such as Shanghai GM, FAW-Volkswagen, Beijing Hyundai, Changan Ford, Great Wall, Jianghuai, Chery, Geely and other mainstream car companies have to implement official landing. Other car companies that have not announced the "official drop" have also implemented various price reduction methods in the terminal market, such as financial means such as installment of interest-free cars and interest subsidies, such as buying a car to purchase tax.

For the market development in 2016, major auto companies did not shy away from price cuts when they were interviewed by reporters, and they were accustomed to various price wars in the market. In an interview with this reporter, Zhang Yujie used the price reduction space of luxury car brands as an example to explain the price reduction space of Chinese car companies: “The price after price reduction affects brand positioning”.

Although the market situation is not optimistic, in 2015 China's SUV market sales reached 6.27 million units, up 52.7% from the previous year, and the growth rate continued to be significantly higher than the overall level of 9.6% of the passenger vehicle market. At the same time, the share of SUVs in the passenger vehicle market increased by 8.8 percentage points, breaking through 30% to 31.1%. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that the SUV market in 2016 will maintain a growth rate of around 36%.

Based on the growth expectations of the SUV market, major auto companies have also accelerated the introduction of SUV products. Despite this, cars are still considered to be the main force of the market, which is the basis for major car companies to achieve sales targets. In fact, since 2015, China's SUV competition has become more and more popular, and many new models have not been sold in the market. The Great Wall Harvard, which is based on SUV, has officially declined a number of products in 2015. Beijing Hyundai, SUV products such as Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM were not spared.

There is no doubt that the Chinese auto market has entered a transition period. In an interview with reporters, Shen Jinjun, president of China Automobile Dealers Association, said that at this stage, it is not realistic to maintain the healthy and sustainable development of the automobile market, and “expanding production capacity” and “continuously introducing new vehicles to the market”. market".

The capital market still believes that there is huge room for growth in the Chinese auto market. Gong Fangxiong, managing director of JPMorgan Asia Pacific and chairman of China Investment Bank, believes that the number of cars in the Chinese market will reach 500 million in the future. In the future, the annual sales volume of Chinese cars will reach 40 million. From now on, used cars will be an important incremental market.

Shen Jinjun, executive vice president of China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that the development of auto finance can stabilize the price of new cars on the market, thus accelerating the flow of used cars. In the 2016 inventory reduction process, the interest-free or interest-reduction methods of major auto companies have played a significant role in stabilizing the price reduction of new cars to a certain extent.

In the face of more intense competition in 2016, Shen Jinjun hopes that the whole vehicle enterprise can reduce the price war as much as possible. The automobile sales company participates in the product design of the auto finance company and subsidizes more market concessions into financial products. In order to maintain the stability of the market price and maintain the normal profitability of the dealers.

New energy vehicles are supported

In the context of the slowdown in the automobile market and environmental pressure, new energy vehicles are expected to be high.

Based on the sales of 330,000 vehicles in 2015, many car companies are accelerating their horsepower and want to grab a better position in the new energy car market in 2016. However, in this new policy-oriented field, it will face policy adjustments such as subsidies and plugging. This year, various favorable and unfavorable factors have been mixed, and the new energy market is hard to be sunny as it was last year.

BYD, which ranked first in the global new energy vehicle sales in 2015 with a score of 61,700, is accelerating its pace of advancement in order to maintain its leading edge. According to the plan, 10 new vehicles and derivatives will be launched in 2016, among which new energy The proportion of models will be as high as 80%. Compared with other car companies, BYD's advantage lies in its own two battery production bases in Huizhou and Kengzi, achieving 10GWH power battery capacity. BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu recently said that BYD's advantage lies in the first step in the layout of new energy vehicles. In terms of batteries, motors, and electronic control, there is no gap between them and international automakers, and even go even earlier. In Wang Chuanfu's view, after the scale of new energy vehicles, the cost will gradually decline, which will offset the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles.

In addition, car manufacturers such as BAIC, GAC and SAIC have all added to new energy vehicles in 2016.

While car companies continue to enrich their new energy vehicle product lines, many local governments have also increased their support for new energy vehicles. Among them, Hebei Province expands the scope of public service vehicles, and incorporates nine new energy vehicles such as official cars and taxis into the public service field. The proportion of subsidies for nine types of new energy vehicles is increased from 1:0.5 to 1: 1. In addition, the Taiyuan Municipal Government has recently decided to replace the taxis in the six districts of the city with BYD pure electric vehicles.

Xu Haidong, assistant secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, pointed out that the restrictions on the purchase of cities such as Beishang Guangshen may be able to boost the sales of new energy vehicles, and the improvement and implementation of new national standards for electric vehicle charging. In 2016, new energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow at a high speed. Sales will exceed 700,000 units.

However, some car companies are cheating, which has cast a shadow over the new energy vehicle sector. Due to policy adjustments and plugging, the growth rate of new energy vehicles will be slowed down to some extent. The Ministry of Finance recently held a video conference on the special inspection and arrangement of new energy vehicles for the promotion and application of subsidies, aiming at standardizing the use and management of subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, and resolutely cracking down on various types of fraudulent and rent-seeking behaviors. The Commissioner inspected 25 provinces and cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Jiangsu, covering all 90 new energy vehicle manufacturers that were supported by the central financial subsidy in 2013~2015, and extended the purchase of enterprises and institutions that use new energy vehicles and local governments. department.

An insider of a new energy auto company recently said in an interview with the reporter of China Business News that due to the recent investigation of new energy subsidies by relevant government departments, the speed of subsidy is somewhat affected. In addition, some local governments have promised to give certain subsidies to car companies in order to promote their tasks in 2015, but some have not yet been honored.

Pang Yicheng, chairman of the Intelligent Power Interactive Group, said that policy subsidies should remain stable overall. At present, new energy vehicles still need state support, but as the economic development slows down, the government's subsidy will still have a slight decline. At present, the market demand is absolutely not as strong as seen in the previous two years. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2016 will reach 700,000 units. In Pang Yicheng's view, the biggest challenge facing electric vehicles is not the price, but the user's anxiety about the lack of mileage and the chance of experiencing the product is too little.

In an interview with reporters, Zhang Zhiyong, an automotive expert, said that many companies are constantly enriching their products and improving their mileage. It is expected that infrastructure such as charging piles will also improve significantly in 2016, and many governments will accelerate their efforts in public services. In the promotion of new energy vehicles in the field, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2016 should rise as a whole.

The field of vision has been broadened. After Google and Baidu completed the first test of driverless driving, Internet car is considered to be a major direction in the future.

As a German, Dai Lei was originally a representative of the traditional car people. He was also not optimistic about IT manufacturing two years ago. But now, the 43-year-old Dai Lei has changed his original point of view. "It can be determined that Internet cars are the trend. The future cars are like this. This is a matter of time. My decision is related to my dreams."

At present, Dai Lei has left the position of General Manager of Dongfeng Infiniti and will soon join an Internet car company called Harmony Futeng. Harmony Futeng is an innovative investment platform jointly established by China Harmony New Energy Automobile Holdings Co., Ltd., Hon Hai Group and Tencent Group through their respective affiliated entities. “Internet + Smart Electric Vehicle” is the core strategic project and independent enterprise of the platform. Developing a future-oriented personal travel solution.

Dai Lei said that many car companies thought that the opportunity of Chinese cars was a new energy car five years ago, and now IT companies believe that it is a new energy + Internet car. But "what kind of product is the Internet car, the current consensus is that it may be realized in stages, and ultimately it is a driverless car."

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