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“I estimate that the economy will be more difficult in the first quarter of next year. As the policy investment is gradually put into place in April, the economy will gradually pick up, which is a good opportunity for engineering dump trucks (heavy vehicles) and light commercial vehicles suitable for rural use. At the 2009 annual meeting of Dongfeng Corporation, Xu Changming, director of the Economic Information Center of the National Information Center, stated in his keynote speech "Opportunities and Challenges for Light Cars."
Commercial vehicle growth rate has been lower than the industry
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first 11 months of this year, commercial vehicle sales reached 2,465,300, an increase of only 7.65% year-on-year, and the growth rate has been significantly lower than the industry level. At present, the industry has more negative views on the trend of the auto market next year, but Xu Changming, an authoritative expert in the industry, is quite optimistic.
Xu Changming believes that taking into account that the United States, the European Union, Japan and other major trading partners in China have fallen into a recession, exports will be greatly affected next year, and even negative growth will occur. Car sales will mainly depend on expanding domestic demand.
“From a long-term trend, the growth rate of automobile sales by 2020 will be about the same as GDP. Considering that China is in the process of industrialization and urbanization, the annual average GDP growth rate will maintain about 9%, so the Chinese commercial vehicle market is The global scope is also a bright spot to look forward to.†Xu Changming said that the engineering dump truck is expected to have better performance next year; the rural market will also be further explored.
Lots of good for commercial vehicles
"After the implementation of the fuel tax, the road maintenance fee was abolished. If the oil price does not increase, the cost of using a light truck will be reduced by 7,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan, and the cost for a heavy truck will be reduced by 70,000 yuan. 80,000 yuan, commercial vehicles have a greater impact than passenger cars."
After the implementation of the fuel tax price reduction on refined oil products, the passenger car cost will be reduced by 7%, and the cost of trucks will be 13%. If the road and highway charges are added, the passenger car cost will be reduced by 61% and the cost of the truck will be reduced by 39%. Among them, passenger cars saved 85 billion yuan and trucks saved 122 billion yuan, which could save 207 billion in total.
For passenger vehicles, each vehicle can save 1,500 yuan in fuel costs and 1,500 yuan in road maintenance fees for a total of 3,000 yuan per year. In general, after the implementation of the fuel tax, the stimulating effect of commercial vehicles as production materials is even greater.
GF Securities's "Investment Strategy for the Automotive Industry in 2009" recently announced that domestic demand will continue to decline in the first half of next year, but will gradually pick up as the economy improves in the second half of the year. At the same time, the driving force for economic growth next year will come from government investment. The demand for commercial vehicles in the industry will improve before passenger vehicles.
The micro-vehicle market that benefits from the construction of new rural areas in China and the large- and medium-sized passengers markets that benefit from the construction of urban public transport systems will exhibit relatively stable growth. The heavy-duty truck industry, which is subject to the overdraft demand brought about by this year's emission standard shift, will continue to maintain a downward trend in the first quarter of next year. With the start of various project investment projects, it is expected that demand will start to improve in the second quarter, and the annual sales volume is expected to improve. Declined by 11%.
China National Heavy Duty Truck: Launch of New Heavy Truck HOWO-A7
Chairman of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Chairman of China National Heavy Duty Truck Hong Kong Co., Ltd. Ma Chunji also said at the recent annual meeting in 2009 that the Chinese heavy truck market is expected to recover in the second quarter of next year. With the advantages of leading industries, Sinotruck has achieved good results in the past year.
In 2008, China National Heavy Duty Truck expects to produce and sell more than 112,000 heavy trucks a year and produce 128,000 engines. The annual sales revenue will exceed 50 billion yuan. Cai Dong, general manager of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, said that the company's indicators this year increased by 30% year-on-year.
China National Heavy Duty Truck announced that CNHTC will strive to sell 125,000 heavy vehicles next year, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year. Among them, the vehicle export guarantees 20,000 units and strives to reach 25,000 units, striving to increase market share by 3 to 5 percentage points. In order to meet the challenges and opportunities of the next year, CNHTC launched a new heavy truck HOWO-A7 in Jinan on the 19th.
Dongfeng shares: another 5%~10% increase next year
It is reported that as of December 18, the headquarters of Dongfeng shares reached an annual sales target of 122,000 vehicles. At the same time, the company’s Zhengzhou Nissan sales reached 45,000 vehicles, which was higher than the industry average. In the whole year, Dongfeng’s overall automobile sales are expected to hit 170,000 vehicles.
According to the industry analysis data from January to November, Dongfeng’s light-duty trucks grew by 14.2% year-on-year, which ranks first among mainstream manufacturers, which is 6.8 percentage points higher than the industry; bus chassis has risen under the negative growth of the industry, with sales of 23,000 units. The year-on-year increase was 18.6%, higher than the industry growth rate of 36.71 percentage points, the market share exceeded 30%, ranking first in the industry; overseas exports exceeded 12,000, an increase of nearly 85% year-on-year.
According to reports, Dongfeng’s plan for the next year is to increase 5% to 10% on the basis of 170,000 units in 2008 and maintain the status of the industry and market share it has obtained. In order to achieve this goal, Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. plans to invest in the high-end light truck F91A in June next year. The vehicle plans to achieve sales of 8,000 vehicles in the next year and will step up the promotion of the small-scale Zhengzhou Nissan Second Plant.