Zhang Xiaokai: The internal combustion engine industry is promising

"Three years ago, during the event commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Chinese internal combustion engine industry co-sponsored by the China Combustion Engine Institute and the Internal Combustion Engine Association, most experts stated that with our efforts, with the continuous advancement of science and technology, the internal combustion engine industry will be even more brilliant. a hundred years!"

A few days ago, at the 5th Youth Academic Annual Meeting and 2011 Academic Annual Meeting of the China Internal Combustion Engine Society held in Xi’an, facing many industry experts and young students from all over the world, Vice Chairman of China Machinery Industry Federation and Chairman of China Combustion Engine Institute Zhang Xiaoyi spoke out these words with confidence and attracted the applause of the audience.

If the new energy vehicles were stirred up, the internal combustion engine industry's “billiard for another 100 years” would be questioned a lot, but with the return of people’s understanding of new energy power and traditional dynamic rationality This vision has greatly boosted confidence in the industry.

Can't be replaced by irrational reasons, of course, of course.

On the one hand, the advancement of new energy vehicles has encountered a number of technical difficulties, such as the immaturity of the most prominent battery technology, making people re-understanding the value of internal combustion engines, focusing on the development of the "evolution" space of internal combustion engines on the existing basis; on the other hand The huge market share of internal combustion engines and the great potential for energy saving and consumption reduction cannot be ignored.

In 2010, China’s total output of internal combustion engines was about 74 million units, with a total power of 1.4 billion kilowatts, an output value of 310 billion yuan, and an engine-powered mechanical capacity of about 200 million (Taiwan, Taiwan).

With such a scale, it is no other than the world's best that the internal combustion engine is the undisputed dominant power product. In addition, the country’s development strategy of low energy consumption and new energy, and the development strategy of Guofa [2010] No.22 (“Opinions of the State Council on Promoting Sound and Rapid Development of Agricultural Mechanization and Agricultural Machinery Industry”) clearly stated that non-roads by 2015 The power to reach 1 billion kilowatts has laid a policy foundation for the development of the internal combustion engine industry.

As we all know, internal combustion engines are large consumers of energy. Reliable figures show that China’s annual consumption of gasoline and diesel for internal combustion engines accounts for about 50% of total consumption and about 2/3 of oil consumption. Among them, the energy consumption of non-road internal combustion engines accounts for half of the total energy consumption of internal combustion engines. Every year, new refining capacity is consumed by the growth of automobiles.

Because of this, the internal combustion engine is also the product with the most potential for energy saving and emission reduction. It can be said that grasping the Chinese internal-combustion engine industry is to seize the "nose" of energy-saving and emission-reducing products for transportation and transportation machinery, agricultural machinery, construction machinery and ships. Therefore, the "car", "equipment" and "ship "In all three industrial plannings, internal combustion engines are mentioned. It can be seen that the automotive and advanced equipment manufacturing industries will continue to grow during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, which provides a huge market demand for internal combustion engines. At the same time, due to the large amount of production and retention of internal combustion engines, the effect of energy saving and emission reduction will be very obvious, and the investment cost and social cost will be the lowest.

"As a result, the importance attached to the development of the internal combustion engine industry not only plays an important role in promoting the development of the national economy, but also implements the 'three agricultures' policy, improves the people's living standards, saves energy, reduces environmental pollution, and promotes the development and utilization of green energy. Natural harmony has great and far-reaching significance," said Zhang Xiaoyu.

Gap is the potential The McKinsey & Co. Consulting Group's 2009 report “The Road to a Low Carbon Future” believes that the progress of traditional internal combustion engines and the development of new power systems can effectively reduce global automotive CO2 emissions. By 2030, it will reduce 2.2 Gt per year. The half of the potential for emission reduction comes from the fact that internal combustion engines can use fuel more economically. In addition, about a quarter come from new powertrain technologies such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid or electric vehicle technology. The rest will be attributed to hybrid biofuels, changes in automotive technology performance and better traffic management.

Zhang Xiaoji believes that there is a huge potential for energy saving and “zero” emission expectations for internal combustion engines, and the energy saving potential is predicted to be 20% to 50%.

It is understood that the average fuel consumption rate of Chinese internal combustion engines is 220-350g/kWh on average, which is about 20% higher than the advanced foreign models. It consumes 30 million tons more per year, which is equivalent to 1/6 of the annual oil consumption. In terms of hybrid power, China also has a considerable gap with foreign advanced technologies. Pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids do not yet have a clear technical route.

However, Zhang Xiaoxuan also pointed out that the gap between us and foreign countries is a huge space for development of China's internal combustion engine industry and a huge market.

At this stage, it is still impossible for large-scale development of the most powerful excavator products in the equipment manufacturing industry and other medium-to-high-end machine products. It is still a “shutter door” for Chinese internal combustion engine companies. According to Xing Min, Secretary General of the China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association, of the 800,000 units of Chinese engineering machinery produced last year, 400,000 units were matched with imported internal combustion engines. The internal combustion engine should strive to match up with high-end construction machinery. In the process, which company can take the lead in rushing out of the bottleneck will surely occupy the next round of development opportunities.

In addition, agricultural machinery is a sunrise industry. In the past, people’s views on agricultural machinery were generally low in technology and low in added value. However, as national policies were tilted toward agricultural machinery, the demand for high-end tractors such as high-powered tractors was driven up, opening up agricultural machinery and supporting industries. A new battlefield.

In terms of automobiles, hybrid vehicles are currently an energy-saving vehicle that can be seen and most easily realized industrialization and commercialization. Toyota and GM have already introduced hybrid vehicles in China. Because it not only takes into account the specific effects of energy saving and emission reduction, but also can avoid the current state of the battery technology is not mature. Therefore, most countries have chosen hybrid power as the entry point for the highest priority for energy conservation and emission reduction vehicles.