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After a series of sluggish sales for nearly eight months, the heavy truck market is showing signs of recovery. At present, the production plans of all major heavy-duty truck manufacturers in China have improved significantly compared with January and February, which has initially curbed the momentum of continuous sales decline in heavy trucks.
Looking at the global market, opportunities in North America, Europe, South America, the Middle East, and North Africa are among the ranks of declining demand for heavy trucks. It is estimated that the global demand for heavy trucks with more than 15 tons will decrease by 29% this year.
China’s heavy trucks may be able to take the lead out of the shadows. After months of sluggish growth, 4 trillion domestic investment has driven the recovery of the construction vehicle market. At present, all heavy truck companies in China are in tight production schedules, and their production is already worse than this year’s. The month has more than 100% increase.
However, apart from the strong demand for construction vehicles, other commercial models are still falling. Zhu Yiping, Assistant Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that from January to February of this year, apart from the growth of trucks, other commercial vehicles are declining. The current policy does not include commercial vehicles, and the country’s favorable policies for commercial vehicles are expected. Introduced as soon as possible.
Start sign
China National Heavy Duty Truck's old folks and partners - Swedish truck maker Volvo's global sales in February fell 51% year-on-year. One of the largest single markets in Volvo Europe fell 63%, the North American market fell 6%, Asia's decline of 47%.
Volvo, which still relies on imported trucks in the Chinese market, apparently did not expect the Chinese heavy truck market to show signs of recovery so quickly. If it can continue to maintain its relationship with Sinotruck, Volvo’s decline in Asia may be better. .
Unlike Volvo, China Heavy Duty Truck sales in heavy trucks reached 18,000 in March, the highest level in history, an increase of 16% year-on-year, and the growth rate even reached 100%.
Without the participation of foreign truck giants in the local market, China’s local commercial vehicle manufacturers are only enjoying the resumption of the Chinese market. Liberation, Dongfeng, Foton, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, Hualing, Jianghuai and other heavy-duty truck manufacturers all felt the signs of recovery from February to the present, and especially after entering March, the output of various companies has doubled again.
Dongfeng commercial vehicle related personage introduction, at present the factory worker is working overtime on Sunday, the demand has had the substantial promotion compared to the previous two months, its row output in March has increased from 2600 vehicles in February to 7000 vehicles, the market is recovering . Sales of Foton and Shaanxi Heavy Duty Trucks both reached more than 4,000 vehicles in February. Compared with the sales volume of one or two thousand vehicles in January, sales volume has more than doubled.
At the same time, international commercial vehicle giants such as Daimler, Volvo, Scania, and Mann have not shaken off the financial crisis and have, invariably, taken measures to reduce production. According to HSBC's forecast, the global demand for heavy trucks with more than 15 tons will drop by 29% this year, the developed country market is expected to drop by 24%, and the developing market is expected to drop by 32%.
The rapid start of the Chinese market is due to the fact that the government’s 4 trillion yuan investment has been effective, and the investment plan for the project has benefited the engineering dump trucks significantly, making the Chinese heavy truck market see a glimmer of hope.
Ni Guixiang, Vice Minister of China National Heavy Duty Trucks Corporation Culture, said that the production volume of dump trucks of China National Heavy Duty Truck has always been very large, especially in the several companies merged last year, they are all professional dump trucks of the engineering dump truck, so after the market started, There has been rapid growth in production and sales.
China National Heavy Duty Trucks continued to open sales gaps with other companies in February, which further proves that the current heavy truck market has only one construction vehicle, while sales of other models are not optimistic. Ni Guixiang also stated that at present, only one model of a construction vehicle is sold well, and other models will not work.
The sales of tractors are still falling. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of semitrailer tractors fell by 79% in January-February this year. The market situation is not optimistic.
According to analysts from Cummins Inc., due to the impact on the export market and the rate of restart of the enterprise, the logistics market where the tractors are located has not shown signs of recovery, especially the port and expressway freight markets. Did not start.
In the interview, companies are still cautious about the complete recovery of the heavy-duty truck market this year. After all, there is only one model with a strong demand. The recovery of other commercial vehicles may rely on further stimulation of the policy.
Still need policies
In the “Detailed Regulations on the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automobile Industry†formally promulgated on March 20, it is explicitly mentioned that “the proportion of heavy trucks that occupy trucks should exceed 25%.â€
"If we achieve the above goals, China's heavy truck market will achieve leapfrog development." The above-mentioned Cummins Inc. sources said that "from the mature commercial vehicle market in developed countries, the heavy truck is the future development trend, European and American countries have experienced This kind of process."
However, at present, although the revitalization plan has set specific targets for the development of heavy trucks, the policies that have benefited the development of commercial vehicles have yet to be introduced. This has caused the research institutions to be pessimistic about the prospects of the commercial vehicle market this year.
Judging from the situation in 2008, its heavy trucks accounted for 16.5% of the total trucks. In the first two months of this year, its market share dropped to 11.4%. Sales volume fell by nearly 30% year-on-year, and there are certain market goals from 25%. distance.
Xinhuaxin analysts believe that the total passenger car sales in 2009 are expected to decline by 5%-15%; the market demand for medium and heavy trucks is expected to decline by 10% from 2008. The new economic stimulus measures have a positive effect on minibuses and light trucks. However, due to the significant correlation between the commercial vehicle market and GDP growth, the negative growth trend of the commercial vehicle market in 2009 is unlikely to change and is expected to remain at around negative 10%.
Although the signs of recovery in the heavy-duty truck market in March have shaken the analysis of pessimists, it is difficult to support the full recovery of the heavy-duty market only when the engineering vehicle is in its prime, and the industry’s good expectations for policy are once again rising. It is hoped that the government will implement the existing policies as soon as possible and further introduce policies favorable to the development of commercial vehicles, especially a series of favorable policies for heavy trucks as production materials and production tools, and expand the demand for commercial vehicles in the entire society.
Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with this reporter that the support measures for commercial vehicles have been covered in the planning for automobile revitalization, such as accelerating financial subsidies for updating old models and independent innovation. The policies, etc., hope that the government will introduce the above policies as soon as possible to stimulate the recovery of the commercial vehicle market.
According to analysts from international commercial vehicle companies, China’s commercial vehicle market is not yet mature, and there is still much room for development in terms of vehicle performance and operating efficiency. After the further cancellation of road charges, the cost of logistics companies will be controlled. It will improve the operational efficiency of vehicles and the development potential of China's heavy truck market is huge.