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In the first quarter of this year, the country’s coal production increased rapidly, most of the large-scale power plants had sufficient coal reserves, and coal storage at the Qinhuangdao port was once full, which restricted the supply and demand of coal. However, after March, due to continuous coal mine safety accidents in the country, relevant parties have implemented strict safety rectification measures. All unqualified and unlicensed small coal mines have been suspended from production and rectification, and strict control over super capacity production has taken place. Coal production has declined, and coal prices have remained high. In May, coal output rebounded in the month. In June, coal production reached 38.696 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%.
According to statistics, from January to June this year, China's coal production, sales and consumption compared with the same period last year, the growth rate has declined. By the end of June, the coal stock of the entire society was 115 million tons, an increase of 11.49 million tons from the beginning of the year. According to a report released by the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association on June 30, the price of coking and fat coal pits in Shanxi Province has recently fallen by 15 yuan per ton compared to the first quarter, and the price of thermal coal pits has increased by an average of 20 yuan from the first quarter. The remaining coal prices are basically the same. Flat. It is expected that in the second half of the year, coal prices may have a 15% drop, and different kinds of coal in the coal market will show different operating trends.
Sixty-five percent of China's urea production is based on coal as the main raw material. At the same time, coal is the fuel for urea production. The amount of coal used per ton of urea and fuel is 1.5 tons to 1.8 tons, which accounts for about urea production costs. Two thirds. Therefore, chemical coal in the second half of the year will be driven by the demand for chemical fertilizer market and other chemical products, and it is expected to maintain stable growth and the price will operate at a high level. In addition, at present, the coke market in Shanxi Province is very weak, and the coke backlog is serious. It is expected that there will be no major changes in demand for coking coal in the second half of the year, and prices will show a downward trend.
Coal production growth rate pick-up period of partial coal tight chemical coal prices will continue to operate at high levels
In the first half of the year, the country’s total output of crude coal was 196 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. The coal industry market is shifting from a tight supply and demand in the past two years to a relatively stable period. The relevant parties expect that the coal market will show a balance between supply and demand and a tighter period for some coal types in the second half of the year. Chemical coal will continue to grow steadily.