Global wind power and photovoltaic industry transfer to China

In 2010, the energy industry is not calm. In mid-January, China abolished the “nationalization rate of wind power equipment exceeds 70%” policy, and wind power equipment entered the era of full competition. On January 22, Germany announced that it would cut solar subsidies and make the traditional solar photovoltaic market a “price highland”. China's vast market is thus more attractive, and the wave of global shift of wind power equipment and photovoltaic equipment industries to China has become even more rampant.

The international photovoltaic manufacturing industry will transfer the traditional PV market cut subsidies to China, and China has successively introduced the “Golden Sun” subsidy policies in 2009, making China increasingly become the “price depression” in the world PV market. Especially under the influence of the financial crisis, the transfer of international PV manufacturing industries to China has become a general trend.

China has become a "safe haven"

The transfer has started last year: Germany's PV equipment manufacturer Sarosem has opened two offices in China; the world’s largest semiconductor production equipment company, Applied Materials USA, opened its solar technology research and development center in Xi’an in October 2009. With a total investment of 255 million U.S. dollars, the world’s second-largest solar cell producer, the U.S. First Solar Company, has officially entered the Chinese market and plans to build the world’s largest solar power station in Ordos, Inner Mongolia in the next 10 years, with a project investment of billions of dollars. Dollars.

The global financial crisis in 2008 was the initial motivation for overseas PV industry to seek to transfer to China. China's attractive cost advantage, good scale production base and huge potential market are the basic reasons for its layout in the Chinese market.

The data shows that China's photovoltaic power generation market has great potential. According to statistics, China has 1.2 million square kilometers of desert, desertified land, and potential desertification land. It can install 100,000 kilowatts of solar photovoltaic cells per square kilometer, and 1 billion kilowatts can be installed in 1% of deserts. According to the Investment Analysis and Forecast Report of China Thin Film Solar Cell Industry issued by China Investment Advisors, China's installed photovoltaic power generation capacity may increase to 2 million kilowatts by 2020, which is 12.5 times that of the original plan.

At the same time, China's low-cost human capital and the country's subsidies for the photovoltaic industry have all aroused the enthusiasm of overseas PV companies to invest in China.

Reduction of subsidies will speed up the transfer of speed industry insiders believe that Germany and other countries to reduce the photovoltaic power generation subsidies, has fundamentally changed the idea of ​​foreign PV companies continue to adhere to the European mainland, and accelerate the transfer of photovoltaic industry to China.

Germany is the world's largest photovoltaic application market, and it is also the most important driving force for the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in the past few years. Its move to reduce subsidies naturally has a huge impact on solar photovoltaic companies. The relevant agencies estimate that after Germany's PV on-grid tariff reduction, the average internal rate of return of the German PV market will be reduced from 12% to 7%, which will greatly affect the profitability of the company.

In an interview, Cui Rongqiang, executive director of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that the photovoltaic industry in developed countries has been shifting to China, and this trend will become even more pronounced as Germany's subsidy cuts pressure on corporate costs.

Reality also confirms this judgment. Germany announced the reduction of subsidies soon, the German solar energy company Odysse Corporation announced that it will cooperate with China Antai Technology Company to set up factories in Beijing to produce solar cells and modules. Spain’s energy leader Effima Group also stated that it officially landed on the Chinese PV market and participated in the construction of a 2000 kilowatt photovoltaic power plant in Xuzhou, China. In addition, Japan Sharp Corporation is also looking for a suitable location to build photovoltaic cell production base.

It is worth noting that China's solar PV market has not yet fully started. Even if Germany and France cut their solar subsidies, the Chinese market capacity will not be able to compete with them in the short term. Photovoltaic products produced by domestic companies are also basically export-oriented. Therefore, some experts analyzed that at the current stage, foreign companies entering China may be to reduce the cost of photovoltaic products and then re-exported to the European and American markets; from a long-term strategic analysis, it is to arrange in advance in the Chinese market.

Zhou Fengqi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said: “The cost should be a major consideration for foreign PV companies to come to China. In addition, the Chinese PV market has not officially started yet. The early layout is for the future.”

The traditional photovoltaic market cuts solar energy subsidies. Europe is the most important solar photovoltaic market. Today, the “most important” words may have to be discounted. On January 22, the world's largest photovoltaic application market - Germany suddenly announced a reduction in the price of on-grid PV, which led to the other two important PV market, Spain and France, becoming Europe's third country to cut solar subsidies.

The new plan for PV on-grid price was jointly announced by the German Federal Ministry of Environment and Nuclear Safety. The main contents of the plan include: The rooftop solar photovoltaic electricity price will be reduced by 15% from April 2010, and the reduction rate will be greater than 10% of the new energy bill of Germany; the solar PV electricity prices of the ground system and farm system will be July 2010. Decrease by 15% and 25% respectively. If the annual total installed capacity exceeds 300,000 kilowatts, the rate will be further reduced.

The plan also stipulates that the on-grid PV tariff should be dynamically adjusted based on the annual installed capacity. From 2011 onwards, if the annual new installed capacity exceeds 350,000 kilowatts, the on-grid PV tariff will be further lowered by 2.5%; if the newly installed capacity exceeds 450,000 kilowatts, an additional 5% will be reduced, but if the new installed capacity is less than 250,000 kilowatts, PV on-grid price will cover 2.5%.

According to this proposal, the maximum sub-category of the German roofing system, the on-grid tariff for roof systems with a size of less than 30 kW, will be lowered from 0.33 euros per kilowatt-hour to 0.365 euros.

The solar photovoltaic market is highly dependent on government subsidies. After the government cuts subsidies, some of the foreign PV manufacturers will be unable to bear the high costs, resulting in a capacity “crowding-out effect”, and the emerging photovoltaic market will become the target for capacity transfer of these enterprises.

Chinese companies face challenges and opportunities Regardless of whether foreign companies are reducing costs or planning ahead, they all pose challenges to Chinese PV companies. In the face of the global wave of PV industry transfer, what should Chinese companies do?

There is no doubt that competition among enterprises will intensify. After China's PV companies relied on the advantages of low labor costs and energy costs to stabilize in the international market, European and American competitors also saw this. The transfer of factories to China has become a new way for many European and American photovoltaic manufacturers to fight against Chinese manufacturers. This means that domestic companies can no longer rely on traditional labor advantages to compete with foreign companies.

On the other hand, shifting the tide will also bring some of the most advanced photovoltaic technologies in the world. For example, the Spanish Efimar Group's take-home of domestic photovoltaic power plants will enable it to introduce the world's most advanced solar tracking technology, the bi-axial daily tracking technology, which will enable the full-day solar energy reception capacity to be doubled. How domestic companies compete with foreign companies technically is expected.

Everything is just like Cui Rongqiang, executive director of the China Renewable Energy Society, said: “The photovoltaic companies that can survive in the future will inevitably be the enterprises with the best product quality and highest cost performance.” China already has its own leading enterprises and leading products. I believe this The short-sleeved competition will not lead to the shrinkage of the domestic PV industry. Instead, it will prompt China's leading enterprises to mature faster.