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LED industry chain supply and demand relationship has changed the industry to face new opportunities and challenges
The signs we have seen are: (1) In 2016, the upstream price of the LED industry chain increased frequently, and some products rose more than 15%; (2) In 2016, the downstream LED lighting enterprises saw a turnaround in revenues, and many companies grew more than 40% year-on-year. %. The reason for the representation is that raw materials are rising in price and are transmitted downstream. In fact, the supply and demand relationship of the LED industry chain has changed. There are significant signs of improvement in the supply and demand structure of the LED industry. The upstream enters the price increase cycle and the downstream performance is outstanding. The signs we have seen are: (1) In 2016, the upstream price of the LED industry chain increased frequently, and some products rose more than 15%; (2) In 2016, the downstream LED lighting enterprises saw a turnaround in revenues, and many companies grew more than 40% year-on-year. %. The reason for the representation is that raw materials are rising in price and are transmitted downstream. In fact, the supply and demand relationship of the LED industry chain has changed. LED industry chain demand side: LED lighting penetration space is still large, 16 years of small spacing ushered in the outbreak demand side analysis 1: LED lighting penetration rate is only 27.2%, and the ban on white orders from October 1 to promote further accelerated replacement of LED lighting Incandescent lamps are expected to consume 60% of the 15-year LED bulb capacity. It is estimated that by 2020, the annual average growth rate of global LED lighting will reach 20.36%. Demand Side Analysis 2: The indoor and outdoor small-pitch LED market continues to be hot, with more than 140 billion demand in 16 years, and there will still be nearly 40 billion new demand per year in 17-18 years, while the current small-pitch LED production capacity is 70 billion. Left and right, the gap between supply and demand is huge, and in summary, the demand has been significantly improved. LED industry chain: 16 years of upstream chip capacity expansion is limited, packaging industry concentration is significantly improved. Supply side analysis 1: The 13th Five-Year Plan no longer includes the LED industry in the cultivation industry, LED chip enterprise subsidies are gradually narrowing. The overall upstream chip capacity has been significantly inhibited in nature. From the Aixtron and Veeco, which account for 90% of MOVCD supply, the order volume of only 30 MOVCDs in 16 years can reflect that the upstream capacity expansion will be greatly slowed down. Supply side analysis 2: After 15 years of deep reshuffle, nearly 4,000 LED related companies have withdrawn from the market, of which the low-end backward package production capacity has been fully eliminated, the industry concentration has been significantly improved, and the leading packaging company with good cost control ability will benefit from the scale. The effect is improved and the bargaining power is significantly increased. LED supply and demand patterns are tight, or will continue into 2018. After 15 years of deep reshuffle in the LED industry, the overall supply pattern of the LED industry has been fully adjusted, the industry's entry barriers have increased, new supply will be significantly reduced, leading companies will expand their economies of scale and their bargaining power will be significantly improved, and due to the Chinese government's supply side. Reform and contraction of LED upstream subsidies, the future disordered production capacity will be significantly inhibited. At the same time, LED lighting and small-pitch demand terminals are long-term, so the next two to three years will continue to drive the downstream demand of the LED industry chain.