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In recent years, China’s robot production has maintained rapid growth. Last year, the sales volume of 90,000 units was close to one-third of the global market share. China has become the world's largest industrial robot market for four consecutive years. According to data, by 2018, the industrial robot market in China will reach 150,000 units.
The density of robots in China is far below the average level in the world. With the demographic dividends gradually disappearing and the industrial transformation and upgrading, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other places are currently promoting machine substitutions, which has brought unprecedented opportunities for the Chinese robotics industry.
However, in the face of competition with foreign brands, China's robot manufacturing industry has long been subject to human, low-end redundant construction, "small, scattered, weak" core technology and parts, and large-scale machine substitutions for the domestic robot industry. It is also not a severe test.
More to promote machine substitutions
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 14 showed that China’s industrial robot production in May was 10057 (Taiwan/set), which achieved a rapid growth of 47%. This is not a single month phenomenon: In recent years, the robotics industry has maintained With the high growth rate, in the first half of this year, the output of industrial robots increased by 50.4%.
Looking forward, China's industrial robot market has been expanding at a very high rate for the past seven years. According to a report recently released by the International Robot Federation (IFR), in 2016 China's industrial robots sold 90,000 units, an increase of 31% year-on-year, well above the world average growth rate of 14%.
From 2010 to 2016, the Chinese industrial robot market has grown by more than five times. From 2013 onwards, China has become the world’s largest industrial robot market for four consecutive years. Its share of the global market has increased from 1/5 of 2013 to In 2014, it reached 1/4, and last year it was close to 1/3.
Behind this is the upsurge of machine substitutions in China. Xu Xiaolan, secretary-general of the World Robot Congress, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that despite the fact that there has not been a large area of ​​machine substitution for the entire country, this trend has already occurred in the eastern coastal areas represented by Guangdong and Zhejiang.
She said that on the one hand, the above-mentioned problems such as declining population dividends and rising labor costs are forcing manufacturers to replace machinery; on the other hand, with the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, the mode of production is shifting toward fineness and flexibility. Manual operations may be difficult to undertake new jobs, companies may not be able to recruit the required labor, and only machine substitutions may be conducted.
According to Yao Zhijun, deputy secretary-general of the China Robot Industry Alliance, the layout of the robot industry overlaps with the phenomenon of machine substitution. He pointed out that the most concentrated area of ​​the current machine substitution is the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta. Among them, the Pearl River Delta is represented by Guangzhou and Foshan, and the number of industrial robots is very large; the Yangtze River Delta is represented by Shanghai and Jiangsu, and the giants of robot manufacturing are all laid out here.
In addition, he said that there are currently two regions with relatively large potential. One is the Bohai Rim region, where industrial robots in Liaoning and Tangshan are developing rapidly, and the other is an inland region represented by Chongqing.
Qu Daokui, chairman of the China Robotics Industry Alliance and president of Xinsong Robotics, told 21st Century Business Herald that the traditional advantages of Chinese companies are low-cost and labor-intensive, and that the most demanding machines for replacement are technology and capital-intensive industries. As China's industrial transformation and upgrading will be accompanied by the reconfiguration of the employed.
However, Xu Xiaolan does not think that machine substitution will bring about employment problems. She believes that machine substitution itself is the result of the disappearance of demographic dividend. At present, it is urgent to cultivate skilled workers who meet the requirements of the new era, thus promoting industrial transformation and upgrading.
Robot industry opportunities and challenges coexist
The ups and downs of emerging machines has brought unprecedented opportunities for the robotics industry.
According to the "Robotic Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" issued by the ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology last year, by 2020, the annual output of industrial robots of China's own brands will reach 100,000 units, and the annual output of industrial robots with six axes and above will reach 50,000. Above the table.
According to IFR, by 2018, the industrial robot market in China will reach 150,000 units; by 2020, the number of industrial robots in China will be more than 800,000 units, and the robot density (the number of industrial robots used per 10,000 workers) will exceed 150.
From a worldwide perspective, the average density of global manufacturing robots in 2015 was 66, of which the density of robots in industrialized countries generally exceeded 200. However, this figure in China is only 36. Therefore, it seems that China has a huge market for industrial robots.
However, is China's robotic industry ready to welcome large-scale machine substitutions? Xu Xiaolan is not very sure about this. In her view, the current robotics industry in China is still immature, independent innovation, core components are still fragile, blindly large-scale advancement of machine substitutions, will inevitably lead to the direct import of robot core components from abroad. Even the whole machine made the huge Chinese market surrender.
From the structural point of view, industrial robots are mainly composed of four parts: body, servo motor, joint reducer and controller. At present, except for the three key components in the field, the speed reducer and the servo motor are basically monopolized by foreign companies. The domestic robot manufacturing companies are subject to the control of key components, and there is basically no bargaining power, and even the entire manufacturing cost and the imported machine Inverted, it is very passive in the market competition with foreign companies.
According to Qu Dao-kui’s calculations, the cost of components such as motors and speed reducers that China’s robots need to import accounts for about 70% of the total cost of robots.
In application, Chinese robots are also facing the dilemma of high-end market marginalization. Qu Dao-kui introduced that at present, in the field of multi-joint robots, foreign companies accounted for 90% of the market share, foreign brands of industrial robots with more than 6 axes accounted for 85% of the market; in the field of difficult welding, foreign companies accounted for 84% In the more advanced automotive manufacturing industry, foreign companies account for 90%. The domestic robot equipment applications are mainly concentrated in the general industrial fields such as handling, palletizing, loading and unloading.
The other side of high-end competition is the low-end redundant construction. The problems of “small, scattered, and weak†enterprises are prominent.
According to Li Dong, Director of the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are currently more than 800 companies manufacturing robots in China, of which more than 200 are robotic body manufacturing companies. Most of them are assembled and subcontracted, and they are at the low end of the industrial chain. The industrial concentration is low and the overall scale is small. At the same time, there are more than 40 industrial parks based on the development of robots in various places, and there are already hidden concerns about low-end surpluses.
Among the large number of enterprises, more than 90% of the companies are under 100 million yuan in size. Even the leading enterprise Shenyang Xinsong, its 2015 sales revenue was only 1.69 billion yuan, which is equal to Yaskawa, Fanuc, ABB and other sales revenue are The international robot giant with a scale of 10 billion yuan is less competitive than it is.
“Compared to machine substitution, we should be more concerned about whether the current Chinese robotic industry has the ability to independently innovate and capture these markets in the face of huge domestic market potential,†said Xu Xiaolan.
Machine Substitution Tide: Industrial Robot Production Increases 50.4% in the First May
In the first five months of this year, the output of industrial robots in China increased by 50.4% year-on-year.