New Energy Vehicle "Great Leap Forward" Promotion


Since the "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" was issued in 2009, China has encouraged the promotion and demonstration of new energy vehicles to implement one after another; April 18 this year, "Energy-saving and new energy automotive industry development plan (2012-2020) )" settled the technical path of the dispute, is placed high hopes.

However, in fact, the development of domestic new energy vehicles has not been out of the "policy hot, cold market" situation. According to a recent survey by the reporter, the results are not optimistic. Only 8% of participants believe that the current model cities for new energy vehicles have played an active role in cultivating the first batch of private consumers.

Some analysts believe that due to the new energy vehicle technology is not too hard, the cost is too high, and support can not keep up, after a series of incentive measures in China have been too rash.

The “Great Leap Forward” promotes many legacy issues

The Chinese government's encouragement for the promotion of new energy vehicles began in 2009. Its landmark event was the launch of a project entitled “Ten Cities in Thousand Cities” in early 2009: through the provision of financial subsidies, it plans to spend 3 years or so and develop 10 projects each year. Cities, each city launched 1,000 new energy vehicles to carry out demonstration operations. Since then, the Chinese government has successively introduced pilot policies to subsidize private purchases of new energy vehicles, but the speed of these projects is not satisfactory.

The data shows that as of the end of 2011, the demonstration cities actually operated about 15,000 new energy vehicles, which was far from the overall national demonstration target of 25,000 vehicles. According to another data, the Ministry of Finance originally reserved a subsidy budget of 5 billion yuan for new energy vehicles. By mid-2011, less than 100 million yuan was spent on private purchases.


According to a reporter’s survey, only 8% of participants in the evaluation of the promotion effect of new energy vehicles believe that the current model cities for new energy vehicles have played an active role in cultivating the first batch of private consumers. And 56% believe that the current model cities for new energy vehicles have achieved similar results. At the same time, they believe that the percentage of votes for these demonstration projects “what is not achieved” is as much as 26%.

Prior to this, the problems exposed by new energy vehicles in the process of demonstration and promotion were mainly reflected in three aspects. First of all, local governments are "great and happy," and demonstrations have turned into a face-saving project. There are actually fewer vehicles in operation, infrastructure and other ancillary facilities are lagging behind; second, the immature products of new energy vehicles; finally, local protectionism in the procurement of new energy vehicles. serious.

In order to better understand and test the demonstration effects of new energy vehicles, the State set up a steering group last year to conduct research on 25 model cities. The team leader is headed by Wang Binggang, head of the supervision consulting expert group of the “863 Program” energy saving and new energy automobile major project of the Ministry of Science and Technology. After the expert research of the steering group came back, many experts expressed "not optimistic" about the results of the investigation.

According to experts involved in the survey, what the people usually see in the media is good information. Only after the investigation did they know that many model cities purchased vehicles from other provinces and cities to make up for it. It was only the state subsidies, even basic industries. No chain. Some cities have saved even the cost of the charge, demonstrating nearly a year and operating the vehicle in single digits.

"It is good to expose the problem through demonstration, but if the strategic design of the senior management in the early stage is not clear, the cost of such trial and error may not be too high," an industry source lamented. At the start of the “Ten Cities Thousands”, the technical route of new energy vehicles was not determined, there were few new energy automotive products that met the requirements, and the construction of basic supporting facilities could not keep up. At this time, large-scale demonstrations became anxious.

The prospects for commercialization remain uncertain

China's previous promotion of new energy vehicles is not effective. However, new energy vehicles are the development direction in any case. How can the government support this? At this time, the views of people in the industry have become more differentiated. Thirty-nine percent believe that the current focus is on R&D of core technologies, and 20% believe that focusing on the discussion of business models, about 41% will give priority to the "two go hand in hand."

Judging from the current state of the world's new energy automotive technology, electric vehicles and other new energy vehicles are still in the exploratory phase, in addition to more mature and stable hybrid cars. The explosion of electric vehicles in many domestic and foreign automotive companies also caused a sharp drop in capital markets and consumer confidence.

At present, there are roughly three types of business models for electric vehicles in the world, namely, vehicle sales models, vehicle rental models, and bare car sales, battery rentals, and exchange-filling modes. These three models have all been applied in China's model cities, but there are still no clear answers for whether they are better or worse.

However, as regards whether new energy vehicles should go ahead in the public sector as well as the leasing market, this issue has basically reached a consensus among people in the industry. Up to 83% of people believe this is an inevitable path.

When will Chinese consumers buy new energy vehicles in large quantities? This issue is still relatively distant from the eyes of most people in the industry. According to the survey, about 59% believe that the possibility of new energy vehicles going to the mass consumer market within five years is minimal; however, some optimists believe that five years are enough, and a small number of people think that consumers buy new energy vehicles in large quantities. Or it will be achieved within three years, but the sum of the voting proportions of these two groups only accounts for 16%. Another 25% of people think it is still difficult to judge.

All indications are that although the development policies of new energy vehicles are clear day by day, the commercialization process is still a long one, and before the technical difficulties of new energy vehicles still have a breakthrough, the prospects are still not very optimistic.


Compared to the previous two years, the new energy auto boom has receded. This is good news for the long-term development of the new energy automotive industry. Some analysts believe that the government and enterprises should sum up the experience and lessons of demonstration and promotion in the past two years, respect the laws, establish market mechanisms, and proceed from their own foundations and conditions, not just the short-term demonstration effects and scale. In addition, we should also avoid the technological hollowing caused by the waste of resources and blind introduction caused by individual politics in the research and development of technology.



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