·The contradiction of overcapacity of synthetic rubber in 2012 will appear

2012 is a crucial year for the 12th Five-Year Plan. The national economy will continue to develop and the rubber industry's demand for synthetic rubber will continue to grow. However, it is predicted that the contradiction of excess rubber in 2012 will appear.

First of all, in terms of raw materials, due to the lightening of the world's ethylene raw materials, the shortage of international butadiene resources will continue, the domestic butadiene market supply will continue to tighten, and the cost of importing butadiene from the international market will rise. Secondly, in terms of production capacity, the domestic synthetic rubber equipment will further develop its capabilities. During the year, 700,000 tons of new equipment will be built one after another. The contradiction between overcapacity of styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber will appear. The overall domestic capacity development rate will further decline, and synthetic rubber production enterprises lacking raw material supporting advantages and technological advantages will face severe tests.

In the future, the quality and service requirements for synthetic rubber products will increase day by day, especially in Europe and the United States, and the requirements for raw materials will be higher. The development of own technology, the formation of distinctive core technologies, the promotion of product structure adjustment, and the production of high-value special grades are still the main direction of industrial technological progress during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. Looking back at the synthetic rubber market in 2011, the main features are as follows.

Production growth is lower than capacity growth. In 2011, seven other companies in the country entered the synthetic rubber industry. A total of eight sets of synthetic rubber production facilities were put into operation, with an additional production capacity of 570,000 tons. The main synthetic rubber (excluding latex and special rubber, the same below) has a capacity of 3.39 million tons, an increase of 20%. The country's main synthetic rubber production was 2.66 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons from 2010, an increase of 10.6%. Compared with the capacity of synthetic rubber in 2011, the capacity of the device was 88% for styrene-butadiene rubber, 79.5% for butadiene rubber, 68% for SBS, and 59% for nitrile rubber.

Apparent consumption growth slowed down and the domestic rubber market share increased. In 2011, the total apparent consumption of synthetic rubber in the country was 3.82 million tons, an increase of 2.3%, and the growth rate was 9.6 percentage points lower than that of 2010. Among them, the apparent consumption of the seven basic rubber types was 3.04 million tons, an increase of 9.2%. , slightly higher than 8.8% of the previous year. The market share of domestic synthetic rubber for the seven basic rubber types rose to 69%, up 6.9 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the domestic market share of domestic rubber is: 85% of styrene-butadiene rubber, which continues to rise by 4%; butadiene rubber rebounded sharply to 78%, up 4.1% year-on-year; nitrile rubber rose sharply to 56%. The year-on-year increase was 12%; the market share of butyl rubber rose sharply to 27%, up 12% year-on-year.

However, due to the large number of new SBS devices put into operation in recent years, the domestic SBS market share has been continuously improved. After the new facilities of foreign-funded and Taiwan-funded enterprises are put into production, the import volume has decreased and the export volume has increased. In 2011, the overall market share of domestic SBS series products reached 96%, an increase of 5 percentage points. The national SBS installation capacity has reached 820,000 tons/year, while the consumption is only 600,000 tons/year. The installation capacity is much higher than the domestic consumption capacity, and the capacity utilization rate is only 68%. It has become the first in the domestic synthetic rubber industry. A product with excess capacity.

The domestic supply of butadiene has become tense, affecting the normal operating rate of the plant. In 2011, a total of 2.08 million tons of butadiene was produced nationwide, an increase of 100,000 tons from 2010, only an increase of 4.9%, and the gap between production and growth of 37% in 2010 was significant. In 2011, due to the shutdown of many sets of ethylene plants outside the country and the impact of the Japanese earthquake, the market price of butadiene at home and abroad rose sharply, which caused the domestic butadiene market price to rise to a record high. Domestic butadiene prices soared from 17,000 yuan per ton in May 2011 to 30,000 yuan in August. Due to the high price of butadiene to the synthetic rubber market, most domestic butadiene rubber plants are forced to reduce production load, and even enter the annual maintenance to avoid the impact of high-priced butadiene on production and operation. The weakness of the SBS market has led to the reduction of production load by Sinopec's Baling Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical and PetroChina's Dushanzi Petrochemical.

The above factors superimposed, resulting in a significant decline in the monthly total production of synthetic rubber in China during the period from June to November 2011. The high price of synthetic rubber market has had a negative impact on the downstream processing industry to increase the use of synthetic rubber, which further magnifies the problem of overcapacity of synthetic rubber.

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