China Automobile Association: Car market data analysis from January to June 2012!

Recently, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data on automobile production and sales in the first half of 2012: From January to June, automobile production was 9,529,200 units and sales were 9,598,100 units, which was an increase of 4.08% and 2.93% respectively year-on-year, compared with 915.60 in the first half of 2011. Ten thousand vehicles and 9,325,200 vehicles increased by 2.48% and 3.35% year-on-year, and production and sales increased slightly, but sales growth rate fell again compared with the same period of last year.

Among them, passenger car production and sales amounted to 7,599,300 units and 7,613,500 units, an increase of 7.87% and 7.08% from the same period of last year. Compared to the first half of 2011, the Group produced and sold 7,049,900 units and 7,111,300 units, an increase of 5.36% and 5.75% year-on-year, and both production and sales increased. The increase was higher than the same period of last year.

The sales and sales of commercial vehicles were 1,929,900 and 1,984,600, a year-on-year decrease of 8.59% and 10.40% respectively. Compared with the 2011 sales and sales of 2,111,100 units and 2,124,900 units, they were down 6.07% and 3.67% respectively. Both production and sales declined, and the decline rate was greater than last year. In the same period.

The overall industry data shows that the automotive market is still showing a low-speed operating situation, and the growth rate is continuously slowing down. The first half of the growth rate in the first half of the year on a low base has been the first time in recent years. The low growth rate is also the highest in recent years.

For the first half of the year, the production and sales of commercial vehicles have experienced negative growth in depth for the second consecutive year, even exceeding a negative growth of 10%. This is also the first time that China’s production has entered industrialization and urbanization. This means that the industrial vehicle, urbanization, and infrastructure construction have caused major changes in the pulling factors of commercial vehicles. If there is no major policy guidance in the next few years, commercial vehicles will continue to operate at low speed for a long period of time and even continue to decline.

Passenger car sales rose by 7.08%, which was higher than the 5.75% in the first half of 2011 and 2.45% in 2011. It seems that the number of dealers has recovered. However, complaints from dealers about stocks in the first half of the year show that a considerable portion of manufacturers’ sales volume is under pressure. The business office did not reach the end consumer. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of June, the inventory of only major auto manufacturers was as high as 688,600, and high inventory reduced the gold content of the growth rate. The real condition of the auto market was not as optimistic as the performance of the data.

In the past six months, dealers have drastically reduced their prices, and manufacturers have also increased their subsidies to ensure that the dealers' survival has eroded the profit of the manufacturers. In the same period last year, several models that had been queued for price increase also joined the price reduction in the first half of this year. With the gradual release of new production capacity from various manufacturers, the future competition will become more intense. The Chinese auto market may also bid farewell to the high-profit era after farewell to the era of high growth. , whether it is a manufacturer or a distributor.

Most companies fail to complete their six-year goals

Although the dismal market in 2011 made most companies set reasonable sales targets for 2012, half a year later, only 50% of the sales target for the year was still very low.

The completion of the annual sales target is half: Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle, Shanghai General Motors and FAW-Volkswagen.

The completion rates of 45% to 50% are: Shanghai Volkswagen, Geely Automobile, FAW Toyota, Great Wall Motor, Beijing Hyundai, Dongfeng Yueda Kia, Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Liuzhou and Shanghai Automotive.

The completion rate is between 40% and 45%: Dongfeng Honda, Guangzhou Automobile Honda, BYD, Shenlong Automobile and Tianjin FAW.

The completion rate is between 30% and 40%, including Changan Ford Mazda, Chery, JAC, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Yulong and FAW Mazda.

The completion rate of less than 30% of the main are: FAW Car's own brand, Beijing Benz, Changan Suzuki, Haima Automobile.

Only 50% of Dongfeng's passenger cars were completed in their own brands, mainly due to the low base figure of the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, only 28,700 vehicles were sold, which still exceeded 100%. Excluding Geely and Great Wall more than 45%, the completion rate of sales targets of other independent brands was less than 40%.

According to the experience of loose sales after the annual sales, companies with a completion rate of more than 45% in the first half of the year are expected to complete the sales volume through Jin Jiuyin and the end of the year through sprint. Even if this standard is followed, more than half of the mainstream car companies will find it difficult to complete annual sales. Targets, independent brands are particularly worrisome.

Self-owned brand share dropped to a new low

In the first half of sales, the top ten passenger vehicle manufacturers and domestic sales were: Shanghai General Motors, 619,958 vehicles, FAW-Volkswagen, 576,280 vehicles, Shanghai Volkswagen, 522,758 vehicles, Dongfeng Nissan, 370,794 units, Beijing Hyundai, 306,627 units, and Changan Ford Motor Co., Ltd. There were 220,396,000 vehicles, 21,606,600 Geely cars, 219,100 units of FAW Toyota, 208,649 vehicles of Shenlong Motor and 216,670 vehicles of Chery Automobile. Shanghai GM still leads the way with greater advantages. FAW-Volkswagen surpassed Shanghai Volkswagen in the second position in the North-South Volkswagen competition. BYD fell out of the top 10.

In the first half of the year, self-owned brand passenger vehicles sold a total of 3,511,100 vehicles, which represented a decrease of 0.16% year-on-year, accounting for 41.39% of the total passenger vehicle sales, and the occupancy rate decreased by 3% year-on-year. Among them, the sale of self-owned brand sedan was 1,423,300, down 6.78% year-on-year, accounting for 27.21% of sedan sales, which was 3.6% lower than the same period of 2011 and 4.47% lower than the same period of 2010. The share of self-owned brand cars has fallen from more than 50% in 2010 to less than 30% today.

In sharp contrast to this, the growth rates of the Japanese, German, U.S., French, and Korean lines were all higher than the same period of the previous year, with the German system being the most prominent with a growth rate of only 20%. The Japanese system also increased by more than 10% year-on-year.

The top five companies that sold their own brands in the first half of the year were Chery, Geely, Great Wall, BYD, and FAW. Among them, Chery still holds the top spot, but its sales volume dropped 9.3% year-on-year to 265,500 vehicles. The BYD and FAW Group, which ranked second and third respectively in the first half of last year, were overtaken by Geely and the Great Wall in the first half of this year, ranking fourth and fifth respectively.

Great Wall is the largest increase in self-owned brands. Its sales volume has increased by 17.3% year-on-year to 209,400 units, an increase not only far higher than the industry average, but also higher than the average 13.1% of the joint venture automakers. Great Wall Sales ranks third in its own brand and is ranked in the top three for its first half year ranking.

Great Wall’s performance not only leveraged on the continued high growth of the SUV market, its car Tengyi C30 contributed nearly 1/3 of sales, selling 67,900 units in the first half of the year, second only to the Haval H3.

Geely's sales increased slightly by 3.6% to 223,200 units. The Emgrand EC7 in its models grew by 24.8% to 60,800 units, with an average monthly rate of over 10,000 yuan, much higher than other models.

The biggest drop in self-owned brand camps was FAW and BYD. Among them, FAW sales fell by 27.7% to 165,800 units. In addition to the slightly increased sales of Xenia and the newly-listed Oulang, FAW's main models were down more than 20% in the declines in Xiali, Pentium B50, Pentium B70 and Weizhi.

BYD fell 11% year-on-year to 260,900 units as the product line structure entered the adjustment period. The original main models F3, G3, and F6 all experienced a decline of over 30%, while the new cars L3, S6, and G6 that were introduced in recent years achieved rapid growth. The sales of the three models are second only to F3.

The sixth to tenth ranked companies are Dongfeng Group, Changan Group, Jianghuai Automobile, SAIC Group and Brilliance. Compared with the same period of last year, Haima dropped out of the top ten and Brilliance rose one to tenth place. Dongfeng and SAIC grew faster, and JAC slipped 27.5% year-on-year.

Structural imbalance: The more expensive cars grow faster

One notable feature of the auto market in the first half of the year is the unbalanced growth mechanism: the slower the growth of the lower-level models, the faster the higher-level growth.

The first is the decline in the market share of small-displacement models. In the first half of the year, sales of passenger vehicles with 1.6 liters or less of displacement were 510.73 million, accounting for 67.08% of passenger vehicle sales. Market share decreased by 2.04% year-on-year; sales volume increased by 3.92% year-on-year, which was lower than the automotive sales market by 3%.

Among them, the sales volume of cars with 1.6 liters and below was 3.6794 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, which was lower than the overall growth rate of the car. At the same time, the proportion of sedan cars with 1.6 liters or less accounted for 70.34% of total cars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%.

The SUVs whose growth rate has been significantly higher than the overall growth rate of passenger vehicles since 2007 have continued to soar in the first half of the year, and both the production and sales growth rates have exceeded 30%, far higher than other models.

Secondly, compared with imported brands, joint venture brands, and self-owned brands, imported vehicles grew by 26.5%, joint venture brands increased by 13.1%, and self-owned brands suffered negative growth, which was “the faster the growth of more expensive cars”.

Taking imported vehicles as an example, the growth in the first half of the year was 26.5% year-on-year, and the amount of imports increased by 37.7% year-on-year. The increase in the amount was higher than the growth in the amount, indicating that the luxury of imported cars has only increased.

From the perspective of all models, it is more evident that the higher the level, the higher the growth in sales. In the first half of the year, A00 sales volume fell by 29.8%, A0 level fell by 0.5%, A-level growth was 10.4%, B-level growth was 19.2%, and C-level and above growth exceeded 20%.

On July 1, Guangzhou will impose restrictions on purchases. In the future, more cities will join the ranks of purchase restrictions. This will further deepen the imbalance in this consumption structure. The high growth of imported cars, luxury cars, and large-displacement cars will not only reduce energy consumption but also reduce energy consumption. The megatrends run counter to the trend, and high profits flowing to foreign manufacturers are also not conducive to the development of the Chinese auto industry.