Domestic demand for external demand boosts prospects for construction machinery

In accordance with the development of growth mode of structural adjustment, with the promotion of fixed asset investment and the continuous growth of exports, the construction machinery industry will re-emerge under the stimulus of the official 12th five-year development plan of the Chinese construction machinery industry. Better investment opportunities.

For individual stock investment, it is recommended to pay attention to the concrete machinery leading Sany Heavy Industry, crane leading XCMG and Zoomlion, bulldozers and loaders key companies Liugong and Xiagong, and Zhenhua Heavy Industry and Shantui shares in port machinery.

Policies introduced to stimulate the development of the industry The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for the construction machinery industry was officially released. Plan the current status of the industry and the development situation during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the major problems and constraints in the development of the industry, the market demand forecast during the “12th Five-Year Plan”, the development plan goals, development priorities, and major tasks for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. Seven aspects including policy recommendations and implementation opinions elaborated and planned the development status and prospects of the industry.

According to the idea of ​​changing the growth pattern of structural adjustment, it is expected that the sales volume of the construction machinery industry in China will reach 900 billion yuan in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 17%, and an export volume of approximately US$26 billion. In 2015, the industry’s sales revenue and exports both more than doubled over 2010.

Fixed assets investment protection Despite the high growth in the first quarter of the construction machinery industry and the declining performance in the second quarter, the sales of construction machinery in 2011 are still expected to maintain an average growth rate of 15%, and leading industry companies are expected to achieve 40%. The above high growth. The promotion of affordable housing, highway construction, acceleration of airport construction and water conservancy construction in the third quarter will continue to maintain a certain degree of investment intensity in China's infrastructure construction, and directly boost the construction machinery products such as excavators, loaders, bulldozers and cranes. Rigid demand.

Water conservancy construction pulls on construction machinery. In July, the Central Water Conservancy Work Conference proposed to work hard for five to 10 years to fundamentally reverse the apparent lag in water conservancy construction. The meeting showed that the country is promoting the reform of water conservancy construction from a strategic perspective, and all concrete policies in the third quarter are expected to be gradually implemented. Calculated from the total amount, the investment for water conservancy construction will be 400 billion yuan annually in the next ten years. According to the 10% used for purchasing construction machinery, the average annual procurement of engineering machinery is 40 billion yuan, accounting for 10% of the total sales of construction machinery in 2010; In terms of quantity, water conservancy construction investment accounted for nearly 5% of all infrastructure investment in 2010. Calculated at an average annual growth rate of 40%, it will drive the annual increase in infrastructure investment growth by 2%. From the viewpoint of machinery varieties, it will remove special equipment. In addition, the demand for earth-rock machines (such as excavators, loaders, bulldozers) and large lifting equipment (crawler cranes) has been driven by water conservancy construction. With the commencement of water projects in the third quarter, the demand for related construction machinery is expected to gradually benefit.

Safeguard housing construction to stimulate demand. In the first half of 2011, an increase of RMB 209.8 billion in real estate development loans for renminbi, protection rooms nearly cut half of the country's total, an increase of 90.8 billion yuan, an increase of 54.8% compared to the beginning of the year, and a 48.3% increase over the same period of real estate development loans over the beginning of the year. . In 2011, the target for the transformation of affordable housing and shanty towns reached 10 million sets, an increase of 70%. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the state plans to build 36 million new affordable housing units, and the coverage of affordable housing will reach 20%.

According to the decomposing task of the construction of affordable housing in 2011, the corresponding funding requirement for the construction of the entire affordable housing project is estimated to be around RMB 1.3 trillion, of which 10% to 15% of the funds will be used for basic construction machinery. From the perspective of demand, concrete machinery and mining machinery Will benefit from it. With the acceleration of the construction of affordable housing, the performance of related construction machinery companies will increase significantly.

Exports promote performance growth. In June, industry exports continued to grow rapidly since the first half of the year. Bulldozers, rollers, and loaders exported grew by 63%, 29%, and 117% year-on-year, respectively. The cumulative growth from January to June was 69%, 12%, and 86% year-on-year, respectively. Affected by the overseas economic recovery and the strategy of leading overseas expansion of engineering machinery, the industry's export trends are optimistic. At the same time, leading enterprises of construction machinery have taken a certain position in the entire world market through export of brands and cost advantages, and exports will further expand. expand.

In the construction machinery industry, the main excavator manufacturers of 25 major excavators sold 125,430 excavators in January-June, an increase of 28% year-on-year. The sales of excavators began to decline in May compared with the same period of last year. Although the decline rate was basically flat this month, but taking into account the traditional off-season of the industry in the third quarter, combined with the regional rejuvenation driving the transfer of excavator sales, export growth and import substitution, to Sany The market share of domestic brands represented by XGMA and XGMA shares rose rapidly.

24 major loader manufacturers sold 140,915 loaders from January to June, an increase of 19% year-on-year. Although the third quarter was the traditional off-season of the industry, taking into account the wide range of downstream demand, demand in the central and western regions spurred demand, and product demand was mostly concentrated in mining and port logistics. As the industry started early, the current development is relatively mature and the demand for products is relatively stable. In the next 2-3 months, the smooth performance of the loader will continue. In terms of domestic demand, regional demand for loaders is relatively stable, while the benefit of overseas economic recovery, the export of loaders has increased significantly; in the competitive landscape, the giant monopoly of loaders still exists, with a focus on listed companies such as Liugong and Xiagong.

The 12 major bulldozer makers sold 8,817 bulldozers from January to June, an increase of 12% year-on-year. In June 2011, 22 major road roller manufacturers sold a total of 1,861 road rollers. In January-June, a total of 14,238 units were sold, an increase of 2% year-on-year. The downstream of bulldozers is mainly concentrated in the construction of highways. After the “11th Five-Year Plan” that has undergone rapid development, highway investment will enter a stable period. Bulldozer growth will be driven by water investment and exports. Although the demand for domestic demand was gradually stable, the export growth of bulldozers was also rapid. In the first half of 2011, the industry’s export bulldozers have surpassed the same period of 2008 and reached record highs. Compared with 20.6% of exports in the first half of 2011, bulldozer exports accounted for 36.1% in June. The bulldozer industry is still seeing a dominating pattern. In 2011, Shantui’s market share increased by 2.9 percentage points.

12 major truck crane manufacturers sold 23,364 truck cranes from January to June, an increase of 15.00% year-on-year. In June 2011, eight major crawler crane manufacturers sold 171 crawler cranes. From January to June, 1040 units were sold, an increase of 12.92% year-on-year. In June 2011, 11 major truck-mounted crane manufacturers sold 773 truck-mounted cranes, a year-on-year increase of 28.19% and a decrease of 4.33% from the previous month. From January to June, 4,285 units were sold, a year-on-year increase of 33.70%. Although the on-board cranes continued to grow at a high rate since the beginning of the year, their sales accounted for a relatively small proportion of the overall sales of the crane industry. The market share of crane giant Xugong Machinery declined slightly. Zoomlion’s strong growth in crawler cranes led to a significant increase in Sany’s market share in truck cranes. Zhenhua Heavy Industry’s monopoly in the field of port crane machinery is unshakeable.

Taken together, the quarterly growth rate of construction machinery is wave-like, and it will maintain an average growth rate of 15% for the whole year; the industry will have less pressure to destock, and the duration will be limited; the performance is expected to diverge, and the profitability of leading enterprises will be more solid; Under the direct influence of affordable housing, water conservancy construction and exports, under the influence of the construction of transportation ports and other side factors, guided by various advantages such as technology accumulation and brand precipitation, it is expected that the income of the leading engineering machinery companies in the next five years will correspond to The average annual compound growth rate is between 25% and 30%, which is higher than the industry average growth rate by more than 8 percentage points. Focus on the Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong Machinery, Liugong, XGMA, Zoomlion, Shantui, Zhenhua Heavy Industry.