Fan manufacturers: big development should have big gains

From the turbulent situation four years ago to the sudden drop in profits, it seems that the riders of China's wind turbine manufacturing companies are not smooth.

In 2006, the opportunity of wind turbine operators fell from the sky. The state required that “the localization rate of wind power equipment should reach 70% or more, and wind farms that do not meet the requirements for the localization rate of equipment must not be allowed to build.” Domestic machine companies have spotted opportunities and rushed into the market. Previously, there were 21 major manufacturers of wind power machine manufacturing market in China and only 12 local manufacturers. By the end of 2011, there were more than 80 complete machine manufacturers in China, which have increased more than threefold in only five years. So much so that the industry is screaming that Chinese wind power has gone "mad."

The inevitable result of rapid development is a big wave of sand. In the screening of wind turbine manufacturing companies in the market, Huarui, Goldwind, Sanyi Electric and Mingyang, etc., either rely on unique technologies, or rely on price advantages, or choose the right target market, or due to good maintenance services. , To stand out and establish a good reputation in the young wind power industry.

After 2010, wind turbine companies started to improve wind farm facilities. However, in the face of multiple pressures from the upstream and downstream industries, young companies have tried their best to adapt to standards and improve wind farm maintenance, but they still face many problems.

Wind farm maintenance, a stable source of income The lifespan of a wind turbine is about 20 years, and the warranty period is 2 to 5 years after leaving the factory. By 2012, a large number of domestically produced wind turbines have only been in the major wind farms for more than four years. But looking at large-scale wind turbine companies, they basically completed the technical debugging and post-maintenance of wind farms.

At present, the service personnel of large-scale fan companies have a clear division of labor. Huarui Wind Power (601558, stocks) said that its technical staff is divided into three parts, one is on-site daily operation and maintenance personnel; the second is professional maintenance personnel, maintenance and operation are separated, to ensure the professional and high maintenance equipment The quality of maintenance; Third, on-site commissioning personnel, are generally a professional technical background with strong technical capabilities.

Goldwind Technology (002202, stock bar) has provided more than 50 sets of wind farm energy management platform, nearly 20 sets of wind energy forecasting systems, and 80 sets of wind farm central monitoring systems to the market in 2011, and developed grid-friendly products and solutions. , such as smart micro-grid systems, central monitoring systems, energy management platforms and wind energy forecasting systems.

“At present, most of the Jiuquan wind power bases are wind turbines using gold wind technology and Sinovel wind power. In terms of wind farm services, Huarui and other companies do better than international wind turbine companies, such as on call.” Wind farm owners said.

It is not difficult to find that most of Jiuquan's employees in wind farms are quite young, and most of them are even graduates. They lack experience in wind farm operation and maintenance, and many wind farms prefer to give maintenance to wind turbine companies. This will also be one of the long-term sources of profit for wind turbine companies.

Standards frequently occur, enterprises should be overwhelmed, however, the success of the policy and maintenance of the wind farm, did not return to sustained high profits and good reputation. In the short-term, the state has issued various standards, making it even more difficult for equipment manufacturing companies that have been struggling with the wind power plants.

On December 2, 2011, the “Regulation on Wind Power Safety Supervision” issued by the State Electricity Regulatory Commission clearly stated that in the absence of trials on grid connection and on-site operation tests, some domestic new-type wind turbines will be put into large-scale production, leading to wind turbines Various accidents occurred during the construction period and after the operation...

For some large-scale enterprises, because they already have the corresponding technical strength, the formulation and implementation of standards is not a challenge. Most companies do not think so. From the promulgation of the "Technical Regulations on the Integration of Wind Farms to Power Systems" in 2005 to the trial implementation in 2006 and the "Technical Regulations for the Integration of Wind Farms into Power Grids", revised in 2009, and the wind farms issued by China Electric Power Research Institute (300215). Typical design: In July 2011, the “Distributed Access to Wind Power Development Notice” issued by distributed wind power, and the “12th Five-Year Plan of National Energy Technology” that attempted to promote the development of large-scale wind power. Fan-related standards are issued at a high speed and involve a wide range of retrofits. Not only do they have no time for companies to adapt to the wheeze, they also lack detailed consideration in many aspects.

Taking only the technology as an example, on March 1, 2012, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission issued the “Opinions on Strengthening Wind Power Safety Work” and asked the wind turbine companies to open up their powers for setting parameters related to the protection of wind power. However, some wind turbine equipment companies do not want to be open. They believe that the detailed parameters of wind turbines are commercial secrets, and that wind turbine companies make a living from technology, and full disclosure may cause leakage.

In April 2012, the "Technical Regulations for Wind Farm Access to Power Systems" was issued. In the view of wind turbines, this standard has higher requirements for various technical indicators and more detailed standards than previous corporate standards and regulations. For example, the scope of reactive power regulation has been refined, the requirements for low-voltage ride through have been refined, the requirements for communication and signals of wind farms have been increased, the requirements for wind power prediction have been increased, and the recovery time of units after low voltage ride through has been shortened. . In the eyes of companies such as Huarui and Goldwind, “the refinement of the standard has made them more 'regular'”.

However, most small wind turbine companies have to undergo a major test of their technical ability. The additional details required in the standard make it necessary for them to adjust the wind turbine components and development strategy. In addition, standards also require higher equipment quality and manufacturing capabilities.

The profit margin is thin, and the development potential is insufficient. According to one industry insider: “The problem of the wind power industry is that it lacks the enthusiasm for R&D investment and wants to be eager to achieve success.” It cannot be denied that after 2008, the wind power manufacturing industry has a good policy and High profits have made many people see opportunities. In addition to the participation of manufacturing companies, wind farms have also started to engage in wind turbine manufacturing. The severe expansion of the industry has caused the price war of wind turbines to intensify. The mainstream 1.5MW wind turbines offer has dropped from 10,000 yuan to 3,800 yuan. However, with the deceleration of the industry, some hidden crises gradually surfaced, causing great pressure on the wind turbines and even the entire industry.

With the continuous decline in unit prices, raw material prices have continued to rise. In 2010, the overall increase in rare earth prices directly led to an increase in the cost of companies producing permanent magnet direct drive technology. In order to maintain the market that has already been invaded, wind turbine companies are willing to bear a substantial increase in costs and are not willing to conduct it downstream.

Since 2011, the approval rate for new wind power projects has slowed down significantly, and the country’s requirement for low-voltage turbines to increase the cross-renovation has caused wind turbine manufacturers to increase their transformation costs. The cost of a 200,000-kilowatt wind farm will increase by about 20 million to 30 million in the low-voltage ridethrough transformation. At present, many companies and wind farms are in a stalemate due to the agreement on reorganization fees.

In addition to renovation costs, some wind farms put more pressure on wind turbine companies. In January 2012, Yunnan Wind Farm requested wind power equipment companies that had won the bid to pay a 15% cash deposit. In the eyes of people in the industry, this is like real estate developers get the land, and then find a builder to pay for building a house, selling the house before they can pay for the construction of the construction company. Wind power companies that are already burdened with prices, equipment, and other pressures often find it difficult to pay more to the parts suppliers. After the products are completed, the meager profits will hardly support R&D expenses and bank loans. Most notably, this situation is considered to be the norm in equipment tendering.

The financial report shows that although domestic wind turbine companies achieved net profit from 2010 to 2011, they generally declined by more than 70%, and some companies’ operating profits declined by more than 80%.

Currently, multiple pressures have brought about the reshuffle of the wind power manufacturing industry and accelerated the integration of wind power equipment manufacturers. However, in the long run, the diminishing profits will also limit the development of enterprises, slow down the pace of technological renewal, and reduce the opportunities for business expansion. Enterprises that lack a vision and funds will inevitably be unable to produce high-quality products. They may also form a vicious cycle of mutual recognition and mutual accusations in the industry. Therefore, the wind power industry must not only slow down gradually, but also need health guidance.

In an industry chain, only the profits of all links can make the overall development of healthy development. Not only is the fan equipment a part of any link, it may make the entire wind power industry chain no longer strong and difficult to sustain.