Is robot manufacturing ready?

From a technical point of view, industrial robots can only be counted as "robots" because they are not enough "human" wisdom, nor are they "human". From the perspective of reducing labor costs and increasing production efficiency, the current world has entered the Internet era, and the robot revolution has followed.

The development trend of robots is from industrial robots to the direction of “humanoid robots”, from the large-scale application of the manufacturing industry, to the gradual application of social life, the economic field, the literary field, the science and technology fields, and the military field. This trend will change. Human life mode.

Reason: What is the motivation for replacing workers with robots?

Li Yizhong, former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and current deputy director of the CPPCC National Economic Committee, pointed out that it is necessary to promote the intelligentization, digitization, networking, and flexibility of the manufacturing industry to improve the efficiency and efficiency of production tools. At the same time, we must also promote the substitution of machines and human-controlled machines to increase labor productivity and enhance the quality of workers.

At present, the cost of labor in our country is constantly rising.

According to the "China Industrial Development Report 2014" issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the average monthly salary of Shanghai workers is 495 US dollars, which exceeds the average wage of workers in Southeast Asian countries. In some provinces and cities on the southeastern coast of China (such as Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Shenzhen, etc.), the manufacturing wage level is not only higher than in Southeast Asian countries, but also exceeds some areas in the Mainland (such as Jiangxi and Hunan).

From the corporate level, taking social security as an example, according to the current system, the ratio of “five insurances and one gold” that Chinese companies need to take account for about 40% of the total wages. This standard has exceeded the average level of the EU countries, and China’s The current level of economic development is not very consistent. From the national perspective, behind the support of social security, taxes must be raised, making the tax burden on companies increasingly serious.

The “National Enterprise Burden Survey and Evaluation Report” recently released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that the proportion of taxes and surcharges of the main business of Chinese companies on main business income has increased from 2.33% in 2013 to 2.48% in 2014. From the perspective of the local government, if the tax revenue is reduced due to the deceleration of economic growth, then the government must issue bonds to maintain large expenditures. This is also a lesson learned from the quagmire of some European countries. In addition, it is worth noting that the debts of our local governments have reached the point where they must be strictly controlled.

Whether it is analyzed from the enterprise level or the national level, the continuous increase in labor costs is weakening the competitiveness of enterprises. Replacing workers with industrial robots can increase labor productivity and reduce labor costs.

China is also bound to enter the era of robotics, and many manufacturing companies have begun to plan and implement robots to replace artificial plans. It is reported that industrial robots of a coating production line of Baosteel Cold Rolling Plant are working on dry high temperature slag, Baosteel UOE welded pipe welding arc welding plate processes use industrial robots, and Shagang plans 1000 to 1500 labor positions after 3 to 5 years. , replacing 1,000 to 1,500 industrial robots; Midea Group plans to lay off 6,000 employees in 2015. By 2018, it will lay off 4,000 employees by the robots; Foxconn announced in 2011 a five-year layoff plan, which plans to use 100 Million robots replace some workers...

Trend: Industrial robots will replace some industrial workers

The new round of scientific and technological revolutions and industrial changes in the world are now in historical intersection with social development. Developed countries such as the United States, Germany, and France have proposed "reindustrialization" one after another, and Germany has first proposed "Industry 4.0".

So what is the 4.0 industrial revolution?

We know that the Industrial 1.0 Revolution is the steam engine revolution, which is the extension of the "hands" of people; 2.0 is the electrification revolution, that is, the extension of the human "heart"; 3.0 is the computer revolution and it is the extension of the human "brain"; 4.0, of course, is the "brain + The integration of the extension of the heart + manpower is to integrate information, networking, and intelligence into the manufacturing industry. Obviously, when the realization of manufacturing intelligence, the position of the workers on the production line will inevitably be greatly reduced, replacing some workers with industrial robots will become a trend.

The current field of industrial robotics in China is manufacturing. For example, CITIC Heavy Industry Machinery Co., Ltd. has established integrated intelligent systems for underground mines and open pit mines in China, and has laid out robot joint control and mine industrial robots. The three-year plan for industrial development in Hebei Province has included robots in development projects, and the Manufacturing 2025 Development Plan in Shaanxi Province has also included the development of industrial robotization and perception systems.

Lin Zuoming, chairman of China Aviation Industry Corporation, put it: "Industrial 4.0 uses intelligent manufacturing. The most fundamental feature is that it is unmanned. This brings about a major breakthrough, namely, a substantial reduction in industrial costs, and continue to maintain this low cost; In the past, the labor force was used for industrial production. With the passage of time, the labor cost has been increasing, and the industrial cost has been growing linearly.

In addition, robots are also used in the realm of life. For example, the catering industry uses robots instead of service personnel to deliver dishes, drinks, and the like. An electrician of the Sanming Iron and Steel Group of Fujian Province invented the robot automatic intelligent oil-frying pan-cake machine: automatic grouting, frying, frying, draining, forming cakes, and loading plates, all at once, and reciprocatingly circulating. In a robot-manual (5-person) game, the robot wins with 112 cakes and 88 oil cakes, and the shape and color win over the artificial.

From a technical point of view, industrial robots can only be counted as "robots" because they are not enough "human" wisdom, nor are they "human". But now, robots are moving in the direction of "humanoid robots."

Japanese-made humanoid robots are currently at the top level in the world. Aiko Chihira, the beauty robot of Japan’s most famous Mitsukoshi department store, became a receptionist on April 20 and 21, 2015, and introduced the in-store activities to customers. At the Beijing conference site, there are "humanoid robots" selling clothes in the mall. People can talk freely with the robots. Japan’s Softbank Corporation had limited the purchase of 300 humanoid robots Pepper for developers. Pepper can recognize human expressions and tone, and actively serve people on the basis of understanding human emotions. In summary, "humanoid robots" have the ability to perform the tasks that humans have given them.

Although China's robot industry has generally fallen behind the world's advanced level, it has made great progress in Shanghai, Harbin and Hunan. The seven largest companies with the largest production capacity of robotics in China are Xinsong Robotics Automation Co., Ltd., Wuhu Everest Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd., Guangzhou CNC Equipment Co., Ltd., Shanghai Xinshida Robot Co., Ltd., and Yaskawa Shougang Robot Co., Ltd. Nanjing Estun Automation Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Wodi Automation Equipment Co., Ltd.

Not long ago, at the Shanghai International Technology Exhibition, robots produced in Shanghai already had the function of “face recognition” and reached the advanced level of robots in the world. But when does China reach the robot age? Will robots bring significant economic benefits? There is no consensus in the country.

However, Chinese entrepreneurs and scientists are relatively advanced in understanding and acting. For example, Taiwan’s Hon Hai Group listed Industry 4.0 as its future direction. Its goal is cloud, mobile, physical, large, and intelligent + robots, namely cloud computing, mobile devices, internet of things, big data, smart living and smart work networks. Plus robots.

Change: Robots will change human life patterns

He Ji, a researcher at the Institute of Theoretical Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out: "The robot revolution not only makes the production and management of the manufacturing industry go robotics, but also its marketing and marketing, including cloud computing, mobile devices, Internet of things, big data, smart life, and smart work networks. The intermediate links, such as 5G technology, will also go into robotics, and the robot revolution will obviously have a huge impact on China's rapidly developing labor-intensive industries, including brain-intensive labor."

Industrial robots not only replace workers in various positions in the traditional manufacturing industry, but also replace laboratory technicians in scientific laboratories; future battlefield operations will use robots in large quantities; and some of the harsh environmental work such as high temperature, high pressure, chemical and nuclear pollution Mines such as deep wells and deep sea exploration will use robots.

The "China Industrial Development Report 2014" pointed out that in the "reindustrialization" strategy that focuses on revitalizing the manufacturing industry and vigorously developing the real economy, developed countries can develop modern equipment manufacturing such as industrial robots, high-end CNC machine tools, and flexible manufacturing systems. Control the new high ground of the industry to improve the production efficiency of traditional industries.

Western developed countries are calling for the return of the real economy, which is certainly not the return of labor-intensive industries, but the return of the new real economy of modern robots + modern production technologies. Once the United States, Germany, Japan, and other countries have truly achieved the return of the real economy led by robots, China’s economic development may face major challenges.

Modern industry, modern society and economy are moving towards intelligence and challenge humanity: Will the massive use of industrial robots and "humanoid robots" cause human unemployment? Professor Shihichi Black, a professor at Osaka University, a leading scientist in the famous "humanoid robot" field in Japan, believes: "Recalling the history, with the technological innovation, human beings have been losing their old jobs, but they have also created new jobs. The gradual evolution is the process of human development."

According to Shih Ho-ho's prediction, the robot era is approaching and robots will change human life patterns.

Challenge: In the era of robotics, are Chinese manufacturing companies ready?

In the face of domestic and international economic pressures, China's manufacturing must be free from the production mode that relies on the labor dividend. Because of the supply of cheap labor in the past, there was a turning point around 2008. In the years that followed, the "labor shortage" of the eastern coastal areas became increasingly precarious, and labor costs rose sharply. In 2012, the aging of China’s population came ahead of schedule.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that by the end of 2014, China’s total population was 137.82 million people, the population aged 65 and over was 137.55 million, accounting for 10.1%, and the total labor force began to decrease. In the future, the situation of China's labor force will become more severe.

In addition, due to the impact of the family planning policy, some experts predict that by 2022-2031, China will reduce 10 million to 15 million laborers each year, of which physical workers account for the vast majority. This is bound to have a great impact on China's manufacturing industry. In fact, there has been a decline in labor bonuses.

In the metallurgical industry, the overall economic efficiency is low, and the working environment is poor. After the older generation of workers retires, the future labor crisis may be even more severe. The labor crisis may become the last straw to suppress certain metallurgical enterprises. Judging from the current strains of metallurgical enterprises, companies are reducing the number of workers in trucks, trolleys, and locomotives. Some companies have even established unmanned warehouses and used robots in special positions. In 2013 and 2014, sales of robots in China increased by 36% and 54% respectively.

According to reports, the first privately-owned "unmanned factory" in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, has begun construction. This signifies that the "robot" strategy has entered a new phase. It is understood that the first phase of the "unmanned factory" construction system the company is advancing has put 1,000 unmanned robots into operation. The “unmanned factory” is not entirely unoccupied, but it will massively reduce the number of workers and even reach the level of 90% of workers.

In fact, since the “Machine Substitution” strategy was successively announced in Dongguan, Dongguan, Foshan and other places in 2014, the transformation of entity manufacturing companies in these regions into industrial robots’ smart devices has become increasingly strong. Taking Dongguan City as an example, the municipal government has invested 200 million yuan each year since 2014, and invested 6 billion yuan in support of the company's "machine substitution" for three consecutive years. The maximum subsidy ratio can reach 15% of the total equipment. It is understood that the amount of investment put into this strategy in Dongguan has reached 4.2 billion yuan, which can reduce the number of laborers by more than 30,000.

At the same time, "machine substitution" has raised doubts about whether to increase factory layoffs and staff unemployment. It is understood that the current employment gap in Houjie Town, Dongguan is as high as 100,000. In other words, Dongguan's "machine substitution" strategy has so far replaced 30,000 people, but it is still far from making up for the gap in employment.

On the one hand, China has to solve the employment problem of more than 10 million people each year. On the other hand, there is the problem of "labor shortage." This may seem like a contradiction. The Nobel Prize-winning economist Cristof Pisaridis gave the answer: "The structural mismatch in the labor market has led to the inability of workers to match vacancies."

This means that whether or not the prophecies about the “bottom of the robot era is coming” is accurate, it reminds us that improving the quality of the population is a strategic issue that is already imminent.