The rate of change in oil prices in the three places approaches the 4% red line

The European Central Bank and leaders of Germany and France issued a statement defending the euro area, and international oil prices have continued to rise in recent days. September crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) resumed its upward movement above $90 at the close of last Friday and continued to consolidate gains in electronic trading yesterday, reaching a maximum close to $91.

International oil prices started to rebound slightly from last week. On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi expressed his support for the euro zone, followed by German and French leaders who also expressed that they will do everything in their power to protect the euro zone. Supported by optimistic expectations, the financial market rebounded significantly and the international oil price once again rebounded above $90.

However, the current market's expectation of international oil prices is not high, "I firmly believe that international oil prices will not appear unilateral market." Zhuo Chuang Information Energy analyst Lu Bin said, "The economic situation in the euro zone is still grim, bearish state is still there, the recent oil prices The rise was mostly caused by psychological factors, lack of strong support from fundamentals, and laid the foundation for the fall in oil prices in the later period.In addition, the crude oil supply in the market was abundant, and the previous seven-point rise also provided room for the price to fall. The US economy is still slowly recovering, and the recent launch There is little chance of quantitative easing, so crude oil prices will continue to decline in the near future."

Siwang Energy also said in the report that the Middle East situation and the European debt crisis are the key factors affecting the international oil prices in the near future. Although Goldman Sachs and other institutions see more and do more crude oil futures, if the European debt crisis worsens, or suppress international crude oil futures gains.

With the continuous rebound of international oil prices, the average price of crude oil in the three places has been continuously approaching the 4% red line. Zhuo Chuang's statistics show that as of July 27, the movement rate of crude oil movement in the three places was 3.95%, which was only one step away from 4%. It is expected that by the close of July 30, the rate of change in crude oil in the three places will rise to a red line with a +4% price increase.

Zhuochuang Information expects that if the time requirement of “22 working days” is met on August 9th, if the NDRC raises the price of refined oil in a timely manner, the rate of increase will be between 300 yuan and 350 yuan/ton. However, if the NDRC considers the economic and people’s ability to bear the burden and will postpone the price increase, it is expected that the rate of increase may be magnified as the rate of change in the three regions increases. The price of refined oil products was raised for the first time after the “three consecutive falls”, and the prices of the domestic mainstream models of diesel engines will also be returned to the 7-yuan line with the upward adjustment.