The reporter observes the threshold of new energy subsidies and improves the profitability of the industry at least 10 years.

Starting in 2017, subsidies for new energy vehicles will officially enter the state of declining. Not only that, but news shows that the subsidy standards for new energy vehicles will also be fully adjusted.

Judging from the subsidy schemes circulating in the industry, the new standards will be more stringent in the assessment of new energy subsidies, and will be further refined in terms of technical indicators. The first financial reporter learned from a number of new energy vehicle manufacturers that although formal adjustments to technical requirements and standards have not yet been received, in the long run, it is an indisputable fact that the subsidy threshold for new energy vehicles has increased.

According to the previous new energy plan, the policy subsidies for passenger cars are consistently divided according to the cruising range. The longer the cruising range, the higher the amount of government subsidies obtained. In 2017, the national subsidy for each file is 20,000 and 36,000 respectively. 44,000. However, according to the subsidy scheme widely spread in the industry, the subsidies for pure electric passenger vehicles have increased the battery energy density standard. Only pure electric vehicles that meet the energy density index of not less than 90 wh/kg can enjoy the same subsidy, higher than 90 wh/ The kg model can enjoy a 1.1 times subsidy. Not only that, the new standard circulated in the industry also puts forward the requirement of 30 minutes maximum speed and 100 kilometers of power consumption. The plug-in hybrid model maintains the original standard of 24,000 yuan for the duration of the flight of not less than 50 kilometers, but increases the corresponding fuel consumption assessment.

In terms of new energy buses, pure electric buses have been subsidized according to the cruising range and unit mass energy consumption. The maximum subsidy for pure electric buses can reach 500,000 yuan. The subsidies for plug-in hybrid buses are divided according to the cruising range under pure electric conditions. The maximum subsidy amount can reach 250,000 yuan.

The subsidy schemes circulating in the industry have relatively larger subsidies for new energy buses, and set the requirements for unit load quality, energy, consumption and fuel economy. The electric vehicle is divided into 1440 according to the energy density of the battery system. Yuan/kwh, 1800 yuan/kwh and 2160 yuan/kwh, the national supplementary ceiling is 230,000 yuan; the plug-in hybrid bus is subsidized according to the fuel economy level, which is 2400 yuan/kwh, 3000 yuan/kwh and 3600 yuan / kwh, the national compensation ceiling is 100,000 yuan. The amount of subsidies has dropped a lot.

Although the above-mentioned circulation scheme has not been officially confirmed at present, the information that the First Financial Reporter learned from many car companies shows that the above adjustment scheme has extremely high credibility. On the one hand, from the industry situation in the past two years, the technical threshold for new energy subsidies is not one-size-fits-all, but has been continuously supplemented and upgraded. Take the new energy bus as an example. In 2015, as long as it is a pure electric bus of 10 meters or more, you can enjoy the subsidy of 500,000 yuan. In 2016, to receive a subsidy of up to 500,000 yuan, the other two conditions must be met. First, the cruising range is 250km and above, and the unit mass energy consumption is less than 0.25wh/km.kg. This has, to a certain extent, put an end to the practice of increasing the battery for passenger car companies to increase their mileage. On the whole, if the above-mentioned industry-received subsidy policy finally becomes a reality, it will undoubtedly further enhance the market competitiveness of new energy passenger vehicles, and the new energy bus market will also usher in a round of reshuffle.

Standing in the position of industry and market consumers, the standard tends to be strict and will be a multi-win situation. First, effective prevention of bad money to drive out good money, in the context of making consumers profitable, is also a beneficial promotion for the overall technical ability and market orientation of the automotive industry. However, how to realize the comprehensive marketization of new energy vehicles is still a problem that the entire industry needs to solve and actively explore.

At the "2016 China New Energy Automobile Industry Summit and the 14th China Shanghai Automotive Electronics Forum", Geely, a new insider of Geely New Energy Vehicles, believes that although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles can reach 1% this year, overall See, the technical route of new energy vehicles is not uniform, the business model is not clear, the charging piles are included, and the profitability in the infrastructure sector is a problem. Therefore, in the short term, “curving overtaking” will become the leader in this field. Sheep are not realistic.

New energy vehicle subsidy scheme circulating in the industry (picture from the first electric)

At the technical route level, the current policy choices for pure electric, plug-in and general hybrid vehicles are not very clear. Therefore, on the whole, almost all car companies, including SAIC and Geely, have not placed their treasures in a certain field, but have gone hand in hand. For example, Geely has layouts in pure electricity, plug-in hybrids, and general hybrids.

In terms of business model exploration, although China is already the world's largest new energy vehicle market, consumers' willingness to purchase new energy vehicles is still low. To balance investment and output, car companies have to innovate business models and adopt more traditions. The multiple modes of combining sales models and car sharing. Even so, after the government subsidies, although the sales of new energy vehicles can achieve breakeven or even profitability, from the perspective of R&D, production and sales, the profit still needs at least 4-5 years.

Specifically, in terms of infrastructure support, according to Dong Jun, general manager of Star Recharge Shanghai Co., the current charging pile operating enterprises are divided into three categories, one is the state-owned capital asset charging operator; the second is the private capital asset-based Internet. Type charging operator; third, platform type Internet charging operator.

Prior to this, the government hoped and encouraged private capital to enter the charging pile industry to speed up the construction of infrastructure; private capital also believes that with the promotion of new energy vehicles in the future, charging piles will be a good entrance, good control. This portal, with the help of the Internet +, will benefit from extended services such as big data and insurance and sales in the future. It is also mentioned in the industry as "the wool is on the pig." However, after the actual trial, some private charging pile enterprises realized that because the policies, markets and competition situation of different places are different, it is not so easy to realize the original idea. Therefore, the charging pile operating enterprises are also changing their style of play. I hope to find the most reasonable mode according to local conditions. Dong Jun revealed that, for example, the charging of stars has adopted crowdfunding and multi-party cooperation, hoping to seek a win-win situation. But in fact, it takes time to find a way.

Faced with many of the above problems, Ding Lu, general manager of Yangtze River Automotive Strategic Planning, believes that the future development of new energy vehicles will go through four stages: the first stage of new energy vehicles is the learning and innovation stage of traditional vehicles. At this stage, the market share of new energy vehicles is currently around 1.5%, less than 5%. In the second phase, new energy vehicles will grow to 20% market share and become a supplement to traditional cars. The third stage of new energy vehicles accounted for less than 40%, in parallel with traditional cars. In the fourth phase, the proportion of new energy vehicles will exceed 50%, traditional vehicles will enter history, and new energy vehicles will be on the historical stage. However, it seems to him that it will take 10-15 years to reach this stage.

LT Tyres: