Airline’s main loss in the first half of the year reached 4.1 billion

In the first half of this year, the days of aviation companies with “internal and external problems” were even more difficult than expected at the beginning of the year.

Yesterday was informed that in the first half of this year, the profits of the airline’s main business dropped sharply year-on-year. If the exchange gains were deducted, the loss from the main business exceeded RMB 4 billion.

In addition to the economic weakness, H7N9 epidemic situation, and the “eight regulations” and other domestic factors, the penetration of foreign aviation companies and low-cost airlines has begun to bring greater and greater impact, and the medium-term performance of the four major listed aviation companies is expected to be difficult There is improvement.

Reliance on foreign exchange earnings

According to statistics of the Civil Aviation Administration, in the first half of this year, civil aviation completed a total turnover of 31.87 billion ton kilometers, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year, an increase of 5.9 percentage points over the same period of last year; passenger transport was 170 million, an increase of 11% year-on-year; 2.625 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%.

However, the airlines’ profitability disclosed at the recent mid-term civil aviation work conference was less optimistic: In the first half of the year, the airline’s main business suffered a loss of 4.19 billion yuan, relying on exchange gains of 4.33 billion yuan to barely make profits.

“The actual situation in the first half of the year was even worse than we expected at the beginning of the year.” An aviation analyst told the reporter that the demand for air transport (especially the two cabins) increased due to factors such as weak macroeconomic conditions and reduction of three public branches. Slowness and rapid growth of capacity have caused airlines to fight a price war. Ticket prices have not been high, and the fall in fares has directly weighed on the profitability of airlines.

China Airlines (600115.SH) General Manager Ma Xulun told this reporter earlier this year that the first quarter of this year was mainly affected by the global economic downturn and inactive business activities. From April to May, the aviation market was also exposed to the outbreak of bird flu. The impact, together with the routine “savings requirements” of the “eight provisions” of the Central Government, clearly shows that the mid-to-high-end passengers have fallen from the composition of the company’s passengers.

The internal statistics obtained by the reporter from the Civil Aviation Administration also show that the current passenger structure of civil aviation has undergone great changes. Since 2006, the proportion of leisure passengers in civil aviation has been greater than that of public business travelers: In 2004, the proportion of self-paid passengers was 25%. Last year, this proportion reached 55.7%, which means that China’s air transport market has gradually increased from high-end commercial and commercial travelers. The consumer market has turned into a popular consumer market dominated by leisure travelers.

This will undoubtedly be more conducive to better cost control and positioning of the popular consumer airlines. The only low-cost aviation company in the country, Spring Airlines, was affected by bird flu and the shrinkage of Japan routes. However, the company’s profitability in the first half of this year was still about the same as last year.

Foreign Airlines snatched 600 million yuan in subsidies

For the second half of the year, the reporter consulted with many airline managements that the aviation market is expected to be better than the first half of the year. However, due to the US announcement of the timetable for the withdrawal of monetary quantitative easing policy, the expectation that the RMB will continue to appreciate will be weakened. This means that in the coming months, the exchange gains that have helped the “book performance” of the aviation companies will likely be reduced, even to exchange losses.

In the first half of this year, the renminbi has continued to appreciate against the US dollar. As of the end of May, the yuan has appreciated by 1.65% against the US dollar since the end of 2012. In the same period of last year, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar by 0.55%. This also made it possible for airlines that have more U.S. dollar debt due to imported aircraft to obtain a significant contribution to exchange gains.

Of course, the crisis does not only come from exchange gains. In recent years, foreign airlines are accelerating their entry into China's aviation market. In particular, low-cost airlines with more advantages in reducing costs and increasing efficiency have currently entered 13 second- and third-tier cities in China. In addition, the gates for the preparation of new airlines this year have opened again. At present, the CAAC has received 19 applications including new airlines, airline branch offices and airlines to expand their business scope, and has approved the establishment of 3 new companies to build. , 1 branch company and 2 companies have expanded their business scope.

As the enthusiasm of local governments for aviation development continues unabated, their subsidies for airline companies to open up new routes, especially international ones, have also increased year by year. Many subsidies have been taken by foreign airlines. According to CAAC internal statistics obtained by the reporter, in 2012 alone, 18 provinces (cities) subsidized the operation of 107 international routes operated by 63 foreign airlines, and the amount of subsidies exceeded 600 million yuan.

“External airlines have begun to penetrate from the first-tier cities in China to the second and third-tier markets. The international expansion of domestic airlines has only just begun. There is also a gap between international sales and network connectivity and foreign airlines. They are more inclined to create The base hub of Beijing-Shanghai-Guangzhou transports international guests to the hub through the mid-western-to-husband domestic route network and then flies out from the hub.” An insider pointed out to this reporter that, for example, in August of this year, Air China planned to open Chongqing-Beijing-San Francisco route, and in September this year, Eastern Airlines will also open Chongqing-Shanghai-Los Angeles route.